Central Asia

Central Asia
Food Security Outlook Update
August 2023
Due to low water availability, second-season crops face stress conditions
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Samangan and Badghis provinces due to the adverse impacts of three years of recurrent drought. In the rest of the country, the harvest and some access to labor opportunities are closing food consumption deficits, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Amid high unemployment and continued lower-than-normal income, food consumption deficits are expected to increase in October as household food stocks are depleted, notably in northern drought-affected areas as well as in the highlands. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge across widespread areas of the country. In areas where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue, households are likely to close consumption deficits through casual labor opportunities and income earned from the sale of harvested crops. 
  • Second-season crops, mainly rice and maize in northern, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country, are in generally stressed condition due to water shortages resulting from lower groundwater availability and early snowmelt coupled with high temperatures. Given below-average water availability at main water basins of the relevant regions, second-season production is expected to be below average. 
  • In July, WFP reached 4.4 million people with food aid and nearly 1.3 million people with cash-based transfers. After a suspension of aid since January food assistance distributions resumed in Ghor in July following the implementation of safeguards and monitoring mechanisms. Due to funding constraints, assistance distributions have declined in recent months. Since August 2020, assistance distributions in Afghanistan have been historically high, deviating from past typical trends whereby assistance would decline during the harvesting months then increase with the lean season. This year, food aid distributions during the harvesting period declined seasonally as observed in historical trends prior to August 2020. 
  • Nationally, prices of staple food commodities have remained stable in the past few months. Domestic and imported wheat prices are over 30 percent lower than the same time last year and around 15 percent lower than the three-year average. The recent price declines are attributed to the domestic harvest, good inflow of imports, and reduced staple food import tariffs by the government.
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