Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Current Observations

Fighting has spilled over from Tigray into bordering areas of Amhara and Afar regions, resulting in the displacement of over 254,000 people and significant disruption to the ongoing meher agricultural season and other typical livelihood activities. 

Reason for Concern

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The scale and severity of food insecurity are exceptionally high during the ongoing lean season. Relative calm has been restored in Pibor and greater Tonj, permitting crop cultivation in June for the September harvest.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

The exchange rate in IRG-controlled areas surpassed 1000 YER/USD in July. Depreciation of the currency and consequent rising prices of food and non-food commodities are causing more middle-income households to struggle to meet their needs alongside poor households.

Reason for Concern

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

Current Observations

According to IOM, conflict in the northeast, particularly in Dikwa LGA, has displaced over 22,800 people; the most recent attack in late June displaced over 1,300 people. Displaced households are likely to face difficulty engaging in the ongoing agricultural season.  

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

Current Observations

The cassava cropping season was severely impacted by the 2020/21 rainfall deficit. Dried cassava production will likely be 30 to 90 percent below the five-year average due to the two successive droughts in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Reason for Concern

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

First season harvests in Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern/southeastern Ethiopia are expected to be moderate to significantly below average. Atypical livestock migration patterns, below-normal milk availability, and above-average water prices are observed in some areas.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

According to UNHCR, since January 2021, the number of Burkinabè refugees has nearly doubled. There are now 38,000 Burkinabè refugees and asylum seekers across the region.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Ethiopia

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Fighting has spilled over from Tigray into bordering areas of Amhara and Afar regions, resulting in the displacement of over 254,000 people and significant disruption to the ongoing meher agricultural season and other typical livelihood activities. 

South Sudan

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The scale and severity of food insecurity are exceptionally high during the ongoing lean season. Relative calm has been restored in Pibor and greater Tonj, permitting crop cultivation in June for the September harvest.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

The exchange rate in IRG-controlled areas surpassed 1000 YER/USD in July. Depreciation of the currency and consequent rising prices of food and non-food commodities are causing more middle-income households to struggle to meet their needs alongside poor households.

Nigeria

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

According to IOM, conflict in the northeast, particularly in Dikwa LGA, has displaced over 22,800 people; the most recent attack in late June displaced over 1,300 people. Displaced households are likely to face difficulty engaging in the ongoing agricultural season.  

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

The cassava cropping season was severely impacted by the 2020/21 rainfall deficit. Dried cassava production will likely be 30 to 90 percent below the five-year average due to the two successive droughts in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Horn of Africa

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

First season harvests in Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern/southeastern Ethiopia are expected to be moderate to significantly below average. Atypical livestock migration patterns, below-normal milk availability, and above-average water prices are observed in some areas.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

According to UNHCR, since January 2021, the number of Burkinabè refugees has nearly doubled. There are now 38,000 Burkinabè refugees and asylum seekers across the region.

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics