Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict events have declined, but periodically affect trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. The loss of livelihood assets during the conflict has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

As flood waters slowly recede, WFP has been able to reach 88 percent of flood-affected people with food assistance. This includes all four flood-affected locations in Pibor.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Anticipated depletion of currency reserves in early 2020 is expected to result in the rapid depreciation of the Yemeni Rial and disrupted food imports.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and insecurity in the northwest and central states are causing displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods. Over 2.5 million people are currently internally displaced in these regions.

Current Observations

Ongoing insecurity along main roads in Northeast Nigeria is impacting humanitarian actors’ ability to deliver humanitarian food assistance.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Due to very poor macroeconomic conditions and the expected two consecutive poor seasons, atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are expected to continue throughout 2020.

Current Observations

Due to the consecutive poor seasons, livestock herd sizes are decreasing, and some livestock deaths continue, especially cattle, as challenges to availability and access to water and pasture continue. 

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of poorly distributed rains and drought conditions and the likely poor 2019/20 rainy season is expected to lead to production losses and deteriorated livestock conditions for smallholders in parts of the region.

Current Observations

Flooding has been observed across many parts of the region in early January. The forecast of heavy rains in mid-January could lead to further flash flooding potentially destroying infrastructure and croplands.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 750,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

The number of fatalities from conflict continued to rise at the end of 2019, particularly in Burkina Faso.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Current Observations

DRC is currently facing the largest measles outbreak in the world that has caused over 6,000 deaths – more than the 2,235 caused by the ongoing Ebola outbreak.

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Deyr/short rains season was exceptionally above average, resulting in widespread river and flash floods. In some areas, this has slowed recovery from the previous 2018/19 and 2016/17 droughts. 

Current Observations

Locust swarms have spread in Ethiopia and have entered northeastern Kenya from Somalia. Breeding conditions are favorable in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia and in parts of northern Somalia.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict events have declined, but periodically affect trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. The loss of livelihood assets during the conflict has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

As flood waters slowly recede, WFP has been able to reach 88 percent of flood-affected people with food assistance. This includes all four flood-affected locations in Pibor.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Anticipated depletion of currency reserves in early 2020 is expected to result in the rapid depreciation of the Yemeni Rial and disrupted food imports.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and insecurity in the northwest and central states are causing displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods. Over 2.5 million people are currently internally displaced in these regions.

Ongoing insecurity along main roads in Northeast Nigeria is impacting humanitarian actors’ ability to deliver humanitarian food assistance.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Zimbabwe

Due to very poor macroeconomic conditions and the expected two consecutive poor seasons, atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are expected to continue throughout 2020.

Due to the consecutive poor seasons, livestock herd sizes are decreasing, and some livestock deaths continue, especially cattle, as challenges to availability and access to water and pasture continue. 

Southern Africa

Consecutive years of poorly distributed rains and drought conditions and the likely poor 2019/20 rainy season is expected to lead to production losses and deteriorated livestock conditions for smallholders in parts of the region.

Flooding has been observed across many parts of the region in early January. The forecast of heavy rains in mid-January could lead to further flash flooding potentially destroying infrastructure and croplands.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 750,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

The number of fatalities from conflict continued to rise at the end of 2019, particularly in Burkina Faso.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

DRC is currently facing the largest measles outbreak in the world that has caused over 6,000 deaths – more than the 2,235 caused by the ongoing Ebola outbreak.

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Deyr/short rains season was exceptionally above average, resulting in widespread river and flash floods. In some areas, this has slowed recovery from the previous 2018/19 and 2016/17 droughts. 

Locust swarms have spread in Ethiopia and have entered northeastern Kenya from Somalia. Breeding conditions are favorable in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia and in parts of northern Somalia.

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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