Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Since November 2020, conflict and insecurity in northern Ethiopia have driven large-scale displacement, significantly disrupted poor households’ engagement in livelihood activities, and limited humanitarian access, with the impacts most stark in Tigray.

Current Observations

Despite humanitarian resources reaching Tigray, food aid distributions are still not sufficient to meet the need with only 27 percent of the 6.3 million people caseload between mid-October and May 18.

Reason for Concern

A third consecutive below-average rainfall season in late 2021 led to significant crop and livestock losses, alongside water shortages and sharply rising staple food prices. A forecast of a fourth below-average season in early 2022 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

The 2022 gu/long rains is turning into one of the driest seasons on record. Critical levels of acute malnutrition are already widespread, Extremely Critical levels are present in several areas, and there is an increasing concern for hunger-related mortality. 

Reason for Concern

Political and intercommunal conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. Recurrent, extensive floods since 2019 have further eroded household food and income sources. Poor macroeconomic conditions also exacerbate low access to food.

Current Observations

A cholera outbreak is occurring in Rubkona county in Unity state. The risk of transmission is very high in six additional counties in Unity. Household hunger is already severe, and rising disease incidence could lead to worsening acute malnutrition levels.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Severe drought conditions persisted throughout the rainy season in the southwest and across the Grand South, severely reducing maize crop expectations. In the first quarter of 2022, multiple cyclone and tropical storm strikes across the island caused additional crop and infrastructure damage.

Current Observations

The drought is estimated to have significantly reduced maize harvests in the Grand South. In addition, extremely poor soil moisture conditions in these areas are likely to negatively impact upcoming root and tuber harvests.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

In May, India excluded Yemen from its wheat export ban and Saudi Arabia agreed to transfer 174 million USD to the Central Bank in Aden as an extension of the previous financial deposit. Despite these actions to support importation, staple food prices are expected to continue increasing.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced in Burkina Faso.

Current Observations

Conflict has continued to expand in Burkina Faso, toward the border with Togo and Benin. On May 25th, extremist armed groups attacked the municipality of Madjoari, in the East region of Burkina Faso, killing about 50 people.  

Reason for Concern

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral, conflict is expected to be high, driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain poor households’ purchasing power. 

Current Observations

Continued conflict and banditry in the Northwest and Northcentral states is of increasing concern as there are reports households have had all their livestock looted and limited ability to engage in the upcoming agricultural season.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Northern Ethiopia

Since November 2020, conflict and insecurity in northern Ethiopia have driven large-scale displacement, significantly disrupted poor households’ engagement in livelihood activities, and limited humanitarian access, with the impacts most stark in Tigray.

Despite humanitarian resources reaching Tigray, food aid distributions are still not sufficient to meet the need with only 27 percent of the 6.3 million people caseload between mid-October and May 18.

Horn of Africa

A third consecutive below-average rainfall season in late 2021 led to significant crop and livestock losses, alongside water shortages and sharply rising staple food prices. A forecast of a fourth below-average season in early 2022 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

The 2022 gu/long rains is turning into one of the driest seasons on record. Critical levels of acute malnutrition are already widespread, Extremely Critical levels are present in several areas, and there is an increasing concern for hunger-related mortality. 

South Sudan

Political and intercommunal conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. Recurrent, extensive floods since 2019 have further eroded household food and income sources. Poor macroeconomic conditions also exacerbate low access to food.

A cholera outbreak is occurring in Rubkona county in Unity state. The risk of transmission is very high in six additional counties in Unity. Household hunger is already severe, and rising disease incidence could lead to worsening acute malnutrition levels.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

Severe drought conditions persisted throughout the rainy season in the southwest and across the Grand South, severely reducing maize crop expectations. In the first quarter of 2022, multiple cyclone and tropical storm strikes across the island caused additional crop and infrastructure damage.

The drought is estimated to have significantly reduced maize harvests in the Grand South. In addition, extremely poor soil moisture conditions in these areas are likely to negatively impact upcoming root and tuber harvests.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

In May, India excluded Yemen from its wheat export ban and Saudi Arabia agreed to transfer 174 million USD to the Central Bank in Aden as an extension of the previous financial deposit. Despite these actions to support importation, staple food prices are expected to continue increasing.

Burkina Faso

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced in Burkina Faso.

Conflict has continued to expand in Burkina Faso, toward the border with Togo and Benin. On May 25th, extremist armed groups attacked the municipality of Madjoari, in the East region of Burkina Faso, killing about 50 people.  

Nigeria

Although conflict has somewhat decreased in the Northeast, concern remains high as years of insecurity have eroded livelihoods. In the Northwest and Northcentral, conflict is expected to be high, driving further displacement. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain poor households’ purchasing power. 

Continued conflict and banditry in the Northwest and Northcentral states is of increasing concern as there are reports households have had all their livestock looted and limited ability to engage in the upcoming agricultural season.

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Peak Needs 2022

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics