FEWS NET is monitoring the multiple impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on acute food insecurity in the countries where we operate and will incorporate this analysis into our ongoing reporting.


Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Current Observations

Tigray continues to experience one of the worst food insecurity emergencies globally. Urgent humanitarian food assistance is needed to save lives. Severe outcomes are likely through at least January 2022 across the region with areas of central, northwestern, eastern, and southeastern Tigray of highest concern.

Reason for Concern

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

The scale and severity of food insecurity are exceptionally high during the ongoing lean season. Relative calm has been restored in Pibor and greater Tonj, permitting crop cultivation in June for the September harvest.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

The lack of announcement of a new letter of credit cycle—usually quarterly—since January has increased traders’ reliance on the parallel market for hard currency, with food prices expected to increase further in the coming months.

Reason for Concern

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

Current Observations

According to IOM, conflict in the northeast, particularly in Dikwa LGA, has displaced over 22,800 people; the most recent attack in late June displaced over 1,300 people. Displaced households are likely to face difficulty engaging in the ongoing agricultural season.  

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Early season forecast models indicate below-average rainfall during the start of the 2021/22 season. This follows consecutive poor rainfall seasons including the 2020/21 drought, which drove a limited 2020 main season harvest.

Current Observations

Staple food prices are seasonally decreasing but remain above average due to below-normal ongoing harvests across the south.

Reason for Concern

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

First season harvests in Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern/southeastern Ethiopia are expected to be moderate to significantly below average. Atypical livestock migration patterns, below-normal milk availability, and above-average water prices are observed in some areas.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 3,000,000 people are displaced throughout the region. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

Food prices remain above average due to trade flow disruptions from COVID-19 and insecurity, and above-average institutional demand. Over 7,000 newly displaced people have been registered in Burkina Faso in June. Burkina Faso now hosts over 1.2 million IDPs.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Ethiopia

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Tigray continues to experience one of the worst food insecurity emergencies globally. Urgent humanitarian food assistance is needed to save lives. Severe outcomes are likely through at least January 2022 across the region with areas of central, northwestern, eastern, and southeastern Tigray of highest concern.

South Sudan

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

The scale and severity of food insecurity are exceptionally high during the ongoing lean season. Relative calm has been restored in Pibor and greater Tonj, permitting crop cultivation in June for the September harvest.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

The lack of announcement of a new letter of credit cycle—usually quarterly—since January has increased traders’ reliance on the parallel market for hard currency, with food prices expected to increase further in the coming months.

Nigeria

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

According to IOM, conflict in the northeast, particularly in Dikwa LGA, has displaced over 22,800 people; the most recent attack in late June displaced over 1,300 people. Displaced households are likely to face difficulty engaging in the ongoing agricultural season.  

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

Early season forecast models indicate below-average rainfall during the start of the 2021/22 season. This follows consecutive poor rainfall seasons including the 2020/21 drought, which drove a limited 2020 main season harvest.

Staple food prices are seasonally decreasing but remain above average due to below-normal ongoing harvests across the south.

Horn of Africa

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

First season harvests in Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern/southeastern Ethiopia are expected to be moderate to significantly below average. Atypical livestock migration patterns, below-normal milk availability, and above-average water prices are observed in some areas.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 3,000,000 people are displaced throughout the region. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Food prices remain above average due to trade flow disruptions from COVID-19 and insecurity, and above-average institutional demand. Over 7,000 newly displaced people have been registered in Burkina Faso in June. Burkina Faso now hosts over 1.2 million IDPs.

.

/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/uploads/Peak_Needs_January2021.png?itok=FCUFY5Oz

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics