Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

The ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, leading to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and soaring staple food prices. A sixth below-average rainy season is forecast in early 2023, which will likely prolong this humanitarian emergency until the next rains in late 2023. 

Current Observations

The October to December 2022 rainfall season concluded with widespread deficits of 25-55 percent. While deficits are less severe in some areas, quantities are insufficient to alleviate the cumulative, severe impact of the five-season drought on cropping and livestock conditions.

Reason for Concern

The peace agreement, which was formalized in early November 2022, has allowed for increased humanitarian assistance and the re-establishment of basic services; however, recovery of severely eroded livelihoods in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara will not occur quickly.

Current Observations

In November, prices of food and non-food goods in Tigray decreased due to increases in market supply; however, labor opportunities remain limited and wages remain low, which continues to result in low household purchasing power.  

Reason for Concern

Extensive flooding for the fourth consecutive year, coupled with ongoing conflict amidst deteriorating economic conditions, is driving persistently high levels of acute food insecurity in the country. Of particular concern are populations in areas with concurrent insecurity and floods, notably Jonglei and central Unity. 

Current Observations

Violent surges in conflict occurred in western Upper Nile, Greater Pibor Administrative Area, and Uror County of Jonglei in late December and early January. These events have caused civilian deaths, destruction and pillaging of property, and extensive displacement and hindered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning opportunities. Prices are significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. A significant share of the population depends on humanitarian food assistance as a main source of food.

Current Observations

The Sana’a-based authorities continue to target oil infrastructure in areas controlled by the internationally-recognized government. This has effectively halted oil exports, threatening an important government revenue stream with implications for macroeconomic conditions.

Reason for Concern

Conflict and insecurity are eroding household livelihoods and market functioning, especially in the north. In some northern provinces, armed groups have intensified their efforts to blockade and isolate communities. As of November 2022, more than 1.7 million people have been displaced.

Current Observations

Armed groups are continuing to attempt to gain control of new territories, particularly along the borders with Cote d’Ivoire and Togo. A significant increase in attacks have been recorded in Sanguié, Nayala, Zondoma, Passoré, and Sourou provinces.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Horn of Africa

The ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, leading to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and soaring staple food prices. A sixth below-average rainy season is forecast in early 2023, which will likely prolong this humanitarian emergency until the next rains in late 2023. 

The October to December 2022 rainfall season concluded with widespread deficits of 25-55 percent. While deficits are less severe in some areas, quantities are insufficient to alleviate the cumulative, severe impact of the five-season drought on cropping and livestock conditions.

Northern Ethiopia

The peace agreement, which was formalized in early November 2022, has allowed for increased humanitarian assistance and the re-establishment of basic services; however, recovery of severely eroded livelihoods in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara will not occur quickly.

In November, prices of food and non-food goods in Tigray decreased due to increases in market supply; however, labor opportunities remain limited and wages remain low, which continues to result in low household purchasing power.  

South Sudan

Extensive flooding for the fourth consecutive year, coupled with ongoing conflict amidst deteriorating economic conditions, is driving persistently high levels of acute food insecurity in the country. Of particular concern are populations in areas with concurrent insecurity and floods, notably Jonglei and central Unity. 

Violent surges in conflict occurred in western Upper Nile, Greater Pibor Administrative Area, and Uror County of Jonglei in late December and early January. These events have caused civilian deaths, destruction and pillaging of property, and extensive displacement and hindered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning opportunities. Prices are significantly above average and food access is inadequate for many households. A significant share of the population depends on humanitarian food assistance as a main source of food.

The Sana’a-based authorities continue to target oil infrastructure in areas controlled by the internationally-recognized government. This has effectively halted oil exports, threatening an important government revenue stream with implications for macroeconomic conditions.

Burkina Faso

Conflict and insecurity are eroding household livelihoods and market functioning, especially in the north. In some northern provinces, armed groups have intensified their efforts to blockade and isolate communities. As of November 2022, more than 1.7 million people have been displaced.

Armed groups are continuing to attempt to gain control of new territories, particularly along the borders with Cote d’Ivoire and Togo. A significant increase in attacks have been recorded in Sanguié, Nayala, Zondoma, Passoré, and Sourou provinces.

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Peak Needs 2022

FEWS NET Data Center link

Scenario development video

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics