Areas of Highest Concern
In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions.
In mid-August, humanitarian food assistance stockpiles were depleted, with few assistance convoys arriving in Tigray to date, which is minor compared to the level of need.
Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.
Conflict within the SPLM/A-IO is threatening lives and livelihoods in the Upper Nile, northern Jonglei, and parts of Western Equatoria. Nationally, over 184,800 people have been affected by seasonal floods as of August 31st.
Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.
Fighting has re-escalated in Marib in early September, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, household purchasing power and the provision of public services continue to deteriorate rapidly in areas controlled by the internationally recognized government.
Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power.
In the Northeast, conflict continues; however, a slight decline has been observed between June and August due to the ongoing lean season and reports of some members of Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) surrendering to Nigerian troops.
Other Areas of Concern
The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.
The 2021/22 rainfall will likely be near average. However, seed and cutting supplies will be insufficient for the next cropping season.
Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.
Kenyan authorities have declared a drought alert in 12 counties in eastern and northern Kenya. Pasture and water shortages are also reported in parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia.
The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.
Instead of a respite generally observed during the rainy season, the second quarter of 2021 saw more security incidents in northern and eastern Burkina Faso than both the previous four months and the same period in 2020.
Areas of Highest Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia |
In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. |
In mid-August, humanitarian food assistance stockpiles were depleted, with few assistance convoys arriving in Tigray to date, which is minor compared to the level of need. |
| South Sudan |
Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access. |
Conflict within the SPLM/A-IO is threatening lives and livelihoods in the Upper Nile, northern Jonglei, and parts of Western Equatoria. Nationally, over 184,800 people have been affected by seasonal floods as of August 31st. |
| Yemen |
Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance. |
Fighting has re-escalated in Marib in early September, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, household purchasing power and the provision of public services continue to deteriorate rapidly in areas controlled by the internationally recognized government. |
| Nigeria |
Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. |
In the Northeast, conflict continues; however, a slight decline has been observed between June and August due to the ongoing lean season and reports of some members of Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) surrendering to Nigerian troops. |
Other Areas of Concern
| Country or Region | Reason for Concern | Observations |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Madagascar |
The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022. |
The 2021/22 rainfall will likely be near average. However, seed and cutting supplies will be insufficient for the next cropping season. |
| Horn of Africa |
Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access. |
Kenyan authorities have declared a drought alert in 12 counties in eastern and northern Kenya. Pasture and water shortages are also reported in parts of southern, central, and northeastern Somalia. |
| Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali |
The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region. |
Instead of a respite generally observed during the rainy season, the second quarter of 2021 saw more security incidents in northern and eastern Burkina Faso than both the previous four months and the same period in 2020. |
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The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
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