Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict events have declined, but periodically affect trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. The loss of livelihood assets during the conflict has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

In February, there remains a risk that easterly winds will push locusts in adjacent areas of Kenya into southeastern South Sudan.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Anticipated depletion of currency reserves in early 2020 is expected to disrupt food imports and increase the scale and severity of food insecurity.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and insecurity in the northwest and central states are causing displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods. Over 2.5 million people are currently internally displaced in these regions.

Current Observations

Conflict appears to be intensifying in northeastern Nigeria. 

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Due to very poor macroeconomic conditions and the expected two consecutive poor seasons, atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are expected to continue throughout 2020.

Current Observations

Due to foreign currency shortages imports of maize grain are expected to continue at limited levels despite the Government lifting the import ban of genetically modified maize.   

Reason for Concern

Consecutive years of poorly distributed rains and drought conditions and the likely poor 2019/20 rainy season is expected to lead to production losses and deteriorated livestock conditions for smallholders in parts of the region.

Current Observations

Despite favorable early February rainfall in parts of the region, concern remains for maize and sorghum crops across Zimbabwe, Lesotho, southern Zambia, and Mozambique, and parts of Namibia.  

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 910,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

As of mid-January, more than 910,000 people were displaced in the region, over 570,000 of whom were in Burkina Faso.

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Current Observations

Clashes between the ADF militia and the Congolese army are intensifying in North Kivu Province, leading to greater insecurity in the region.

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Deyr/short rains season was exceptionally above average, resulting in widespread river and flash floods. In some areas, this has slowed recovery from the previous 2018/19 and 2016/17 droughts. 

Current Observations

Locust swarms have spread to northern and central Kenya. A new wave of breeding is anticipated at the start of the long rains season in March/April.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict events have declined, but periodically affect trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. The loss of livelihood assets during the conflict has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

In February, there remains a risk that easterly winds will push locusts in adjacent areas of Kenya into southeastern South Sudan.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Anticipated depletion of currency reserves in early 2020 is expected to disrupt food imports and increase the scale and severity of food insecurity.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and insecurity in the northwest and central states are causing displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods. Over 2.5 million people are currently internally displaced in these regions.

Conflict appears to be intensifying in northeastern Nigeria. 

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Zimbabwe

Due to very poor macroeconomic conditions and the expected two consecutive poor seasons, atypically high humanitarian assistance needs are expected to continue throughout 2020.

Due to foreign currency shortages imports of maize grain are expected to continue at limited levels despite the Government lifting the import ban of genetically modified maize.   

Southern Africa

Consecutive years of poorly distributed rains and drought conditions and the likely poor 2019/20 rainy season is expected to lead to production losses and deteriorated livestock conditions for smallholders in parts of the region.

Despite favorable early February rainfall in parts of the region, concern remains for maize and sorghum crops across Zimbabwe, Lesotho, southern Zambia, and Mozambique, and parts of Namibia.  

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 910,000 people are displaced throughout the region.

As of mid-January, more than 910,000 people were displaced in the region, over 570,000 of whom were in Burkina Faso.

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Clashes between the ADF militia and the Congolese army are intensifying in North Kivu Province, leading to greater insecurity in the region.

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Deyr/short rains season was exceptionally above average, resulting in widespread river and flash floods. In some areas, this has slowed recovery from the previous 2018/19 and 2016/17 droughts. 

Locust swarms have spread to northern and central Kenya. A new wave of breeding is anticipated at the start of the long rains season in March/April.

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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