Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

Current Observations

In mid-August, humanitarian food assistance stockpiles were depleted, with few assistance convoys arriving in Tigray to date, which is minor compared to the level of need. 

Reason for Concern

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

As of September 30, according to OCHA estimates, floods have affected over 466,000 people in the region. Communities in Jonglei and Unity states are worst affected, followed by Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Fighting has re-escalated in Marib in early September, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, household purchasing power and the provision of public services continue to deteriorate rapidly in areas controlled by the internationally recognized government.

Reason for Concern

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

Current Observations

In the Northwest, displacement and the telecommunications blackout, associated restrictions, and military operations disrupted the ongoing agricultural season. Additionally, some rural households have migrated to urban areas. Now, these households have to travel back to farmlands, delaying the harvest.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

Current Observations

The 2021/22 rainfall will likely be near average. However, seed and cutting supplies will be insufficient for the next cropping season.

Reason for Concern

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

Current Observations

The forecast of a three-season drought is coming to fruition in the eastern Horn, where the start of the October-December 2021 rainfall season is delayed by at least 10-20 days.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Current Observations

Instead of a respite generally observed during the rainy season, the second quarter of 2021 saw more security incidents in northern and eastern Burkina Faso than both the previous four months and the same period in 2020.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Ethiopia

In Tigray, conflict has resulted in the displacement in nearly 2.0 million people and significantly disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods with very limited coping capacity for millions. 

In mid-August, humanitarian food assistance stockpiles were depleted, with few assistance convoys arriving in Tigray to date, which is minor compared to the level of need. 

South Sudan

Localized conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, trade, and humanitarian access. The loss of livelihood assets from conflict and floods has reduced household food and income sources and eroded coping capacity. Poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

As of September 30, according to OCHA estimates, floods have affected over 466,000 people in the region. Communities in Jonglei and Unity states are worst affected, followed by Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced income-earning. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, over 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Fighting has re-escalated in Marib in early September, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, household purchasing power and the provision of public services continue to deteriorate rapidly in areas controlled by the internationally recognized government.

Nigeria

Conflict is at very high levels in 2021 across the northeast, northwest, and central states. This is causing the displacement of households and limiting access to livelihoods and in the northeast decreasing humanitarian access. Poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining poor households' purchasing power. 

In the Northwest, displacement and the telecommunications blackout, associated restrictions, and military operations disrupted the ongoing agricultural season. Additionally, some rural households have migrated to urban areas. Now, these households have to travel back to farmlands, delaying the harvest.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
Southern Madagascar

The 2021/22 rainy season forecast is being closely monitored given concerns about a possible late start, which would have negative effects on agricultural labor opportunities, production, and prices in 2022.

The 2021/22 rainfall will likely be near average. However, seed and cutting supplies will be insufficient for the next cropping season.

Horn of Africa

Below-average rainfall in the eastern Horn in late 2020 and early 2021 culminated in a multi-season drought, causing significant crop and livestock production losses. A long-term forecast of a third below-average season in late 2021 raises the likelihood of severe impacts on food availability and access.

The forecast of a three-season drought is coming to fruition in the eastern Horn, where the start of the October-December 2021 rainfall season is delayed by at least 10-20 days.

Bordering areas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. More than 1.8 million people are displaced throughout the region.

Instead of a respite generally observed during the rainy season, the second quarter of 2021 saw more security incidents in northern and eastern Burkina Faso than both the previous four months and the same period in 2020.

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics