Supply and Market Outlook

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

December 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
WFP
CILSS

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report.

Key Messages

  • For the fourth consecutive year, aggregate regional cereal production (milled rice, maize, and millet/sorghum) is projected to increase during the 2017/18 marketing year (MY). This trend is supported by favorable agro-climatic conditions, increased area planted, improved seeds, and agricultural programs and policies. Above average regional production will contribute to filling local deficits. Rice and maize production have expanded, while millet and sorghum production have stagnated.

  • West Africa is expected to have a gross marketable surplus of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) of cereals. The region remains structurally-deficit with respect to rice, despite growth in rice production and decreasing regional rice imports. Rice and wheat Imports will persist from well-supplied international markets. 

  • During the second half of MY 2016/17, staple food prices unexpectedly increased across much of the central basin. This was driven by localized deficits and early depletion of stocks due to atypically high demand from Niger (normally be filled by Nigeria). At the beginning of MY 2017/18, staple food prices remain above the recent five-year average. The depreciation of local currencies across the region’s coastal countries and resulting impacts on the cost of imports also contribute to higher prices. Staple food prices will be above average in most countries throughout MY 2017/18, except in Chad. Nigeria’s macroeconomic situation has slowly improved, but prices remain elevated and inflation remains high.

  • Pastoral conditions are characterized by below average forage and water availability in the major livestock producing countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad). The pastoral lean season is expected to begin early. High projected cereal prices will contribute to relatively low livestock to cereal terms of trade (ToT).

  • Cereal harvests in the Greater Lake Chad basin are expected to be below average, with major deficits anticipated in the typically surplus-producing Far North Region of Cameroon. Several markets remain closed or function at reduced levels across the basin. Prices are expected to be elevated. Many households will remain in need of humanitarian assistance through the 2017/18 lean season. 

  • Regional institutional procurement is expected to take place at normal levels across the region, except in Niger where the planned institutional purchase quantities will be above average. Local and regional procurement may be feasible, primarily in the Central Basin, but could drive projected prices higher.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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