Seasonal Monitor

Mostly normal start of season with average or better, well distributed rainfall

May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The onset of the long season (March to July) rains occurred in early March in the bi-modal zone and has been gradually expanding northward to reach parts of the southern Sahelian zone in mid-April.

  • Conditions for wet sowing/planting were normally on time in mid-March for the bi-modal areas, generally on time or a little earlier in April for the Sudanian-Guinean zone and generally on time for the southern part of the Sahelian zone in early May.

  • Agrometeorological conditions have generally been favorable since mid-March for normal development of planted crops in the bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zones with the exception of the extreme western part of the zone where the season has yet to start.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF’s (Intertropical Front) northward migration started in early March and is now positioned between 8.0 and 13.0 degrees latitude in early May.  It is located slightly north of its climatological position over its eastern portion (southern Nigeri-Chad) but 1-3 degrees south of it over its western portion (Burkina Faso - Guinea).
  • Over the bi-modal zone, Sudanian-Guinean zone, and parts of the Sahelian zone where the onset of rains has been effective, total rainfall amounts (Figure 1) from the first dekad of April to the first dekad of May are mostly average to above average (Figure 2).  Areas affected by severe deficits are limited to a small portion in southeastern Cote d'Ivoire along the coast line and another one in northeastern Benin.  The onset of rains has just taken place in early May over the southern part of the Sahelian zone, which received above average rainfall from Nigeria eastward.
  • Rainfall analysis indicates that moisture conditions have been generally adequate and favorable for the development of planted crops in the Bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zones.  The aforementioned severe deficit affected areas will be closely monitored, however, they are not a matter of concern at this point in time.  For the spot in southeastern Cote d'Ivoire the season is over 5-month long and the area normally receives 1.5-2m of seasonal rainfall; whereas for the northeastern Benin area the season is just starting.  Sowing made possible by above average rainfall over the southernmost part of the Sahelian zone have great chances to be successful.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, rainfall is expected to continue expanding northward normally and no dry spell of any significance is expected within the next two weeks.  The ITF is also expected to make a significant progress in its northward migration over its western portion and is expected to be at its average location.

FORECASTS

The seasonal forecast from NOAA-NCEP for the next three-month periods (May-July, June-August, July-September and August-October) calls for average to above average rainfall over most of the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea countries, Cameroon and CAR.

 

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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