Seasonal Monitor

Poor rainfall conditions persist in northern Senegal and southwestern Mauritania

August 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ITF (Intertropical Front) underwent a slight retreat over its eastern portion during the second dekad of August in comparison with its first dekad position; however, it has remained north of its average position over the region with the exception of western Mauritania where it is slightly south of its average position.

  • Dryness persists in northwestern Senegal and southwestern Mauritania where main season cultivation has just concluded (Figure 1).

  • Dryer than average conditions (Figure 1) also prevail in the bi-modal zone; however, this is the normal minor dry season.

  • The risk of flooding is important over areas that received frequent and significant rainfall (Figure 2).

  • The southward retreat of the ITF will start soon and with it the improvement of the agrometeorological conditions in the bi-modal zone.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The ITF has practically reached its northernmost position and the end of the ITF’s northward migration is nearing.  Though it was still north of its climatological position during the second dekad of August, it slightly retreated compared to its first dekad of August position.
  • The seasonal rainfall analysis indicates continued adequate and favorable moisture conditions for planted crops over most of the region.
    • From the northern part of the Guinean zone to the pastoral areas in the northern part of the Sahelian zone rainfall continues to be adequate and well distributed, which has resulted in favorable agrometeorological conditions for good crop and pasture growth and development over most of the region.  However, the northern Senegal-southwestern Mauritania area continue to suffer from dryness and/or poor rainfall distribution (Figure 1).
    • The persistence of poor agrometeorological conditions over this area during the main season cultivation period may have adverse effects on crops.
    • It is the minor dry season in the bi-modal zone and normal dryness (Figure 1) is expected.   Improved rainfall activity is anticipated with the start of the ITF southward retreat and which will coincide with the start of the minor cropping season.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, is expected to reach its northernmost position soon and no significant dry spells are expected within the next two weeks.

FORECASTS

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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