Seasonal Monitor

Generally average rainfall totals for the start of long season rains in the Bi-modal Zone

April 30, 2014

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • March to April rainfall estimates, as well as the short and medium term forecasts, indicate that the onset of the long season rains (March to July) has begun normally in the Bi-modal Zone.

  • Current climatic conditions are favorable for the normal start of agricultural activities in Bi-modal and southern Guinean-Sudanian Zones.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD) was north of its climatological location in mid-April, bringing with it early rainfall for much of the Guinean-Sudanian zone. The resulting above-average rainfall accumulation was seen in central Nigeria, southern parts of Guinea and Burkina, as well as across northern areas of Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin.
  • The seasonable start to the 2014 Bi-modal Season in mid-March has been followed by consistently above–average rainfall accumulation across southern Gulf of Guinea countries.
  • The good moisture conditions resulting from the above-average rainfall observed in late March and most of April maintain favorable conditions for crop growth in the Bi-modal and southern parts of the Guinean-Sudanian Zone. This currently benefits early planted yam and perennial crops, such as cocoa and coffee, and should allow for a timely start to other crops planting activities in the Bi-modal Zone. Current rainfall conditions may also provide incentive to farmers for intensification of field preparation activities in the concerned parts of most of the Guinean-Sudanian Zone that experienced above-average rainfall.
  • According to the short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, moderat to heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next two weeks.

Forecasts

Seasonal forecasts from major meteorological centers (IRI, ECMWF, NOAA-NCEP) for the next several three-month periods (April-June, May-July, June-August and July-September), though they have low skill this early in the season, are not showing any abnormalities that would suggest major rainfall deficits in the coming months. It is indicated, though, that further into the season the western Sahel (Senegal, southern Mauritania and western Mali) has a higher probability for below average rainfall accumulation.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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