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Presence Country
Special Report

Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

November 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region.

Key Messages

  • Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve, as evidenced by gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consumer price index (CPI) has been on a general downward trend but increased slightly between August and September. Global crude oil prices are improving, and Nigerian foreign exchange reserves continue to grow. 

  • Nigeria’s positive trade balance continued to grow in Q2 2018, representing more than 350 percent growth since Q2 2017. Crude oil represented 84 percent of all exports in Q2 2018. Inter-bank and Bureau de Change NGN/USD rates have remained steady in recent months. These trends indicate a relatively positive short to medium term outlook for Nigeria.

  • Prices of major staples, including cereals and tubers, remain elevated relative to average levels. However, prices are generally lower than last year across monitored markets. Prices remain relatively higher in northeast Nigeria due to insecurity. Staple cereal prices, particularly millet, are relatively cheaper in Nigeria than Niger. Additionally, there is increased cowpea demand in Nigeria, particularly in Kano, Dawanau market.

  • Prices in northeast Nigeria are relatively higher than the rest of the country due to relatively higher demand and lower supply. Market functionality remains constrained by poor transport infrastructure and insecurity. The cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) for family of five decreased in September 2018 in both Maiduguri and Damaturu compared to the SMEB in August 2018.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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