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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Conflict intensifies in northeast Nigeria as over 2.0 million people remain displaced

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

Most of the country is in phase 1. Parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Taraba Yobe and Adamawa are in Phase 2. Borno is in phases 3 and 4.

February - May 2019

Most of the country is in phase 1. Parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Taraba Yobe and Adamawa are in Phase 2. Borno is in phases 3 and 4.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In late November, intensified attacks by insurgents on military checkpoints, worship centers and population have resulted in increased fatalities and displacement in the northeast. Crop harvest, livestock grazing, markets and other livelihood activities remain disrupted and dry season activities will likely remain substantially below average. Most affected populations are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors are likely facing similar or worse outcomes relative to adjoining areas.

  • IOM Round 25 assessment report covering October 1 through 20 identifies 2,026,602 across the six northeast states of Nigeria, with five percent increase to the previous round. Almost 90 percent of the IDPs were in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states. Borno state, continue to host the highest IDPs population (1,475,605) in Nigeria. 

  • As at 29th October 2018, the NCDC reported a total of 42,466 suspected cholera cases including 830 deaths across 20 states. Flooding has receded in most areas but remains concerning in Bayelsa and Rivers states. Additionally, the herder/farmer conflict remains active throughout the country resulting in increased fatalities and threatening the ongoing main harvest in affected areas. 

  • Favorable crop harvest is underway in most areas outside northeast Nigeria. Most households are consuming own food as market and household stocks increases and market demand declines. Thus, staple food prices are stable or declining as labor opportunities relatively increased. Consequently, most areas are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, except households impacted by the herders/farmers conflict and flooding, are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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