Key Message Update

Almost 2 million people remain displaced in the northeast of Nigeria

July 2019

July - September 2019

Most of the Northeast is in Phases 3 and 4, with some areas in phase 2. A significant area is inaccessible. Parts of the Northwest are in Phase 2. The rest of the country is in phase 1.

October 2019 - January 2020

Most of the Northeast is in Phases 3 and 4, with some areas in phase 2. A significant area is inaccessible. Parts of the Northwest are in Phase 2. The rest of the country is in phase 1.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Pockets of attacks in the Northeast continue to affect farming activities and access to sources of income. Food prices continue to increase as the lean season progresses. Households are engaging in negative coping strategies to access food needs or are meeting food consumption gaps, leading to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Hard-to-reach and inaccessible areas are likely facing worse outcomes than neighboring accessible areas, likely facing an elevated risk of famine.

  • ETT-IOM report covering 24 – 30 June 2019, revealed a total of 3,700 population movements, including 2,190 arrivals and 1,510 departures across Borno and Adamawa states. Most new arrivals are in Askira-Uba, Bama, Gwoza, Ngala and Damboa in Borno state. IOM-DTM assessment covering March 25 to May 29 revealed over 1.98 million IDPs across the six northeast states with over 1.79 million in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states.

  • Intense military operations in the northwestern states, slightly reducing bandit attacks, kidnapping and cattle rustling. While resource-based conflict persists in some regions resulting to traders, pastoralists and farmers’ evasion of those areas leading to limited farming, and trading activities. Coupled with anticipated flooding, affected households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2020.

  • Growing season activities – early green harvest, weeding, and sowing depending on the area is underway normally across the country providing labor and income opportunities, increased household food stocks and access in affected areas. Similarly, pastoralists have increased access to pasture and water in less conflict affected areas. Coupled with reduced staple food prices relative to last year, over 80 percent of households outside conflict prone areas are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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