Key Message Update

Over 2.0 million IDPs are in the northeast as the conflict persists

January 2019

January 2019

Most of the country is in phase 1. Parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Taraba Yobe and Adamawa are in Phase 2. Borno is in phases 3 and 4.

February - May 2019

Most of the country is in phase 1. Parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Taraba Yobe and Adamawa are in Phase 2. Borno is in phases 3 and 4.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The insurgents have intensified attacks in northeast Nigeria, particularly in northern and eastern Borno, restricting access to some populations. Most affected households in Borno, southern Yobe and northern Adamawa states will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Populations in hard to reach areas are likely facing similar or worse food security situation relative to adjoining accessible areas.

  • ETT-IOM report covering January 7 to 13 indicates population movements including 14,085 arrivals and 539 departures in major urban areas in Borno and Adamawa states. ACF rapid assessment in January 2019 revealed over 23,000 IDPs in Monguno from Kukawa LGA. On January 13, IOM has reported other 32,700 displaced people in MMC/Jere. In November 1,285,616 individuals received food assistance across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states.

  • Communal conflict in central states including Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Benue and Niger states persist. In Kaduna state over 8,000 people have been displaced during September to December 2018 with substantial fatalities and loss of livestock, farm produce and market infrastructure across 8 LGAs, restricting farming, trade and other livelihood activities in affected areas.

  • In the rest of the country, normal dry season activities are underway, providing income opportunities for poor households. Staples prices either remain stable or declining, increasing food access to market dependent households. Similarly, pastoral resources are available and livestock body conditions and prices are favorable. Consequently, most households outside the northeast are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, while others affected by conflict and flooding are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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