Key Message Update

Above average food prices despite good harvests

January 2018

January 2018

Map of current food security outcomes, West Africa, January 2018

February - May 2018

Map of projected food security outcomes, West Africa, February to May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • 2017/18 projected harvest outputs are above average, despite significant declines in structurally deficit countries (Cape Verde, Mauritania and The Gambia). This will improve the availability of food, and will be reinforced by the current harvests of market garden produce. Low pasture health and water points in western Mauritania, northern Senegal, northeastern Chad and, in some places, the pastoral areas of Mali and Niger have led to early transhumance, which is likely to lead to an early and difficult pastoral lean season and a risk of conflicts for the control of resources throughout the region.

  • With new harvests, markets are experiencing a satisfactory supply and a seasonal decline in prices. However, this decline remains less than normal during the harvest period and food prices remain above the five-year average in several parts of the region. These high levels of prices are more pronounced in Nigeria, mainly due to the depreciation of the Naira and high transport costs, and in Mauritania due to deficits and government measures. Also, persistent insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin and northern Mali continues to disrupt food flows in these and adjacent areas.

  • Most of the region will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through May 2018 due to good harvest levels and traditional livelihood strategies. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity are already affecting the Lake Chad region and western central Mauritania. This level of food insecurity will affect, starting in March, the poorest households in several areas in Chad and Mali due to poor harvests and incomes. Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) is also observed in the Diffa region of Niger, that is impacted by civil insecurity.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity affect many households in CAR due to the conflict (where nearly 600 000 people are dependent on humanitarian assistance), in the area of irrigated pepper crops in Niger affected by the Boko Haram conflict, and in the west of the agropastoral zone in Mauritania due to the failure of flood recession crops, poor pastures and low incomes. Starting in March, poor households in the Lake Chad region could face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) because of insecurity affecting livelihoods.

  • In Nigeria, despite the general improvement in security conditions and better access for humanitarian workers to conflict-affected populations, the latter are experiencing acute food insecurity at the Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) level in northern Yobe and in much of Borno, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the outlying areas of Sambisa Forest (South Borno and Yobe) and in the far north of Adamawa. Food security conditions could be worse in areas that are still inaccessible.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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