Key Message Update

Despite good agricultural production, continuing civil insecurity is keeping many areas food insecure

December 2018

December 2018 - January 2019

Carte de la situation de securite alimentaire: la plupart de la region est en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) sauf que Cameroun, Tchad, Niger et Nigeria qui ont les zones en Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC), et Tchad, RCA, et Nigeria qui ont des zones en Phase 3

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to the results of the PREGEC meeting held in Abidjan from 19 to 21 November 2018, projected 2018/19 cereal production in the Sahel and West Africa will reach 74.2 million tons, up 8 and 19 percent respectively from last year and the five-year average. Tuber production is also up 21 percent from the average and legume and oilseed production is up 29 percent.  This will result in good household food availability and diversity, which will improve consumption and income through the sale of part of the harvest.

  • The pastoral situation is satisfactory overall with good availability of pastures and water points. However, below-average pasture conditions in eastern Burkina Faso, central Mali (Mopti), western Niger (Tahoua and Tillabéry), western Mauritania and northern Senegal indicate the potential for early transhumance that could be limited in some pastoral areas of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin due to the persistent civil insecurity.  

  • Market supplies remain satisfactory and are supported by new harvests. Food prices show stability, and in some cases, decline compared to the previous month and last year at the same time, but remain above average, except in Chad and Niger where they are falling. Prices of small ruminants remain stable or above average, but cattle prices are below average in the Sahel, particularly in Chad and Niger due to the persistent low export opportunities to Nigeria. Market operations remain disrupted in the Great Lake Chad basin, northern and central Mali and the Liptako-Gourma region due to civil insecurity.

  • Most areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until March 2019. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) already affects poor households in the northwestern and southwestern regions of Cameroon and will affect internally displaced households in northern and central Mali as of January 2019, as well as poor households in the regions of Segou, Sikasso and Mopti who were victims of flooding in 2018. 

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of acute food insecurity will continue to affect the Diffa region of Niger due to the Boko Haram conflict, and in CAR due to the armed conflict. The same is true in the Tibesti and Lake regions of Chad.  Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In neighboring areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food insecurity situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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