Key Message Update

Ongoing insecurity is leading to an increase in IDPs and a decrease in area planted

August 2019

August - September 2019

Cartes des Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, juin à septembre 2019: Minimal (Phase 1 de lIPC) dans le plupart de la region. Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans l'est de Mali, sud du Niger, nord du Nigeria, et sud du Tchad. Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans Tillaberi Niger, Tibesti Tchad, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, et Republque centreafricaine. Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est du Nigeria.

October 2019 - January 2020

Cartes des Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, juin à septembre 2019: Minimal (Phase 1 de lIPC) dans le plupart de la region. Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le nord du Nigeria. Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans Tillaberi Niger, Tibesti Tchad, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, et Republique centreafricaine. Urgence (Phase 4 de l'IPC) dans le nord-est du Nigeria.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The continuing rains currently in August are allowing for satisfactory development of crops despite the delayed start of season that was observed in some areas. Overall, these delays in addition to poor spatio-temporal rainfall in many areas, and the decrease in area planted in areas of insecurity/conflict, may have locally reduced agricultural production.  Also, the cumulative rainfall in the first dekad of August, indicates that rainfall deficits are continuing in northern Senegal and western Mauritania. The developmental stages of cereals vary from planting to ripening, and in some cases full maturation in the Sudanian zone. Fall Armyworm infestations, and locusts, are still present in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Tchad, with some losses noted.

  • Ongoing pasture regeneration and surface water availability significantly reduce livestock feeding difficulties. However, pasture development is considered fair in Mali (Kayes, Koulikoro and Mopti). Livestock feeding remains a concern in western Mauritania and northern Senegal where the lean season started early. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the greater Lake Chad basin, conflict and civil insecurity continue to negatively impact livestock movements and access to resources.

  • Markets are well supplied with local staples and tubers from new harvests in coastal countries. Demand is experiencing a slight seasonal increase, but well below the usual increase. Prices remain below last year and similar to below average in most countries due to good stock levels, implementation of mitigation measures (moderate price sales and targeted free distribution) and low institutional purchases. However, they remain atypically high in conflict areas and in the Tibesti region of Chad, where market flows and operations are disrupted. In the future, supply will remain sufficient and both demand and prices will increase seasonally according to the average trend and at levels not exceeding last year's levels.

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2019 and some will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, the persistence of insecurity in northern Burkina Faso, central and northern Mali, western Niger and the Lake Chad basin continues to increase the number of internally displaced persons whose livelihoods continue to deteriorate (inaccessibility to cropland and insufficient humanitarian assistance). This situation is most pronounced in the Sahel and northern Burkina Faso. Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2!) affects host and internally displaced households in the Diffa region of Niger, internally displaced households in the Lake region of Chad, poor households in eastern Mopti and Ménaka in Mali, with the addition of humanitarian food assistance.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will remain until September in the regions around Lake Chad, Tillabéry region in Niger, Tibesti region in Chad, Sahel region in Burkina Faso, CAR and Cameroon due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and remain food insecure. Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food security situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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