Key Message Update

Market supplies will remain sufficient to satisfy demand until the lean season, except in conflict areas

April 2019

March - May 2019

Carte des Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, février à mai 2019: La plupart de la region est en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC) en endoits de Mali, Niger, Nigeria; Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) en Cameroun,

June - September 2019

Carte des Résultats estimés les plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, février à mai 2019: La plupart de la region est en Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC), Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC) en endoits de Mali, Niger, Nigeria; Stress (Phase 2!) en endoits de Mali e

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The PREGEC meeting held in Cotonou from 27 to 29 March 2019, estimated final cereal production in West Africa for 2018/19 at about 73.2 million tonnes, up 6.6 percent from the previous season and 17.7 percent from the average. Tubers and pulses are also above the average by 20 percent and 30 percent respectively. In addition to these good availabilities, there are also market gardening products at markets which improve the diversity of food supplies and household incomes.

  • In areas with low pasture production, early transhumance provides adequate livestock feed, except in parts of Mauritania and Senegal where pasture is depleted due to the concentration of livestock. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the greater Lake Chad basin, existing good pastures are very difficult for livestock to access due to civil insecurity.

  • Markets remain well supplied with new crops while demand is seasonally low to medium. Thus, food prices are down compared to last year but remain close to the five-year average. However, they remain atypically high in the Great Lake Chad Basin, the Tibesti region of Chad, northern and central Mali and the Liptako-Gourma region where insecurity disrupts market flows and operations. In the outlook period, markets will remain well supplied until September with prices relatively close to or slightly above average but will remain atypically high in conflict areas.

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2019. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will affect poor households in the Kanem, Barh El Gazel and southern Chad regions, and the Tahoua region and the southern Tillabéry region in Niger between June and September due to the poor harvests in 2018/19. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) will affect poor households in southern Mopti and Gao in Mali and the Diffa region of Niger due to low incomes caused in part by insecurity that disrupts markets in addition to the early depletion of household stocks in some areas.

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will continue to affect the Tibesti and Lac regions of Chad, the Tillabéry region of Niger, CAR and Cameroon until September due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods with negative consequences on their food consumption. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and remain food insecure. Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food situation could be similar or worse.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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