Key Message Update

Above-average agricultural productions favor food access

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-GN-fr

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to the World Health Organization’s November 25th Ebola Situation Report, no new confirmed cases of Ebola have occurred in the country during the past 21 days. This situation facilitates the resurgence of economic activities during the projection period (November 2015 to March 2016).

  • The joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/WFP/Government assessment in November estimated 2015-2016 cereal production at 3,271,767 tons, a 4 percent increase compared to 2014-2015 and a 13 percent increase over the five year average. The manioc production is estimated at 1,528,459 tons, a 24 percent increase from the five year average. The general analysis indicates a satisfactory food availability for covering the local needs of the country.

  • This favorable production outlook will enable important seasonal activities such as agricultural labor and allow poor households to acquire normal revenues to sustain their livelihoods and expand their access to food sources. Compared to previous months, the improved food availability also stabilizes basic food prices and reinforces Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity until at least March.

  • Nevertheless, some forms of food insecurity could develop between now and March 2016 in specific localized populations which were more affected by the residual effects of Ebola, for example, bush meat vendors or certain poor agricultural households who abandoned their livelihoods during the Ebola epidemic. Although these households will not reach 20 percent of the population in any area, they have lost the majority of their revenue sources (sales of agricultural products, income-generating activities, etc.) which will result in a gradual recovery.

    For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for October 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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