Remote Monitoring Report

Movement of internally displaced persons towards urban centers in livelihood zones 7 and 8

February 2019

February - May 2019

Resultats de la securite alimentaire estimes de fevrier a mai 2019 est Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC)

June - September 2019

Resultats de la securite alimentaire estimes de juin a septembre 2019 est Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC)

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The deterioration of the security situation, characterized by increased action by armed groups against civilians and their property and the risk of community conflicts, has resulted in flows of displaced persons from northern communes to urban centers in livelihood zones 7 and 8.

  • In this pastoral area (livelihood zones 7 and 8), where households generally rely on livestock sales to buy cereals, insecurity is leading to a reduction in basic food supplies and a decrease in the use of local markets by livestock purchasers, especially in border communes.

  • However, with harvests at average or higher levels in comparison with the past season, host households have typical access to food and are expected to depend on markets from May onwards. Internally displaced persons are beginning to buy their food, and in the central markets, prices remain near average, or 10 to 20 percent higher than, the five-year average. Poor host and displaced households could be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between May and August.

  • The timely arrival of the rainy season between April and June will help to regenerate pastures, which will limit farmers’ dependence on agro-industrial by-products to feed their livestock. It will also help to limit the retention of cereal stocks by traders and large-scale producers.

AREA CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES
National
  • Deterioration in the security situation, marked by an increase in attacks by armed groups and also by clashes between communities, prompting the authorities to declare a state of emergency in the provinces bordering Mali and Niger.
  • Decrease in the domestic supply of industrial animal feed as a result of the decline in cottonseed production during the previous season.
  • Persistent attacks and abuse by armed groups against not only national security forces, public authorities and community leaders, but also, increasingly, civilian populations and humanitarian actors.
  • Slight increase in basic food prices compared to the average seasonal trend, owing to the need to rebuild institutional stocks to levels twice as high as usual. 
Livelihood zones 7 and 8
  • While some 25,000 Malian refugees have been present in the Sahel region since 2012, the deteriorating security situation has more than doubled the number of internally displaced persons in less than three months, from 41,000 in November to 101,415 in February (OCHA, February 2019).
  • Slowdown in the markets in border communes which are frequented less and less by cereal traders and cattle buyers. In the central markets of Dori and Gorom-Gorom, the price of cereals and industrial animal feed has increased to 14 percent and 23 percent above average, respectively.
  • Likely increased flows of internally displaced persons towards urban centers and cluster sites such as Barsalogho and Foubé (in the north-central region) and Arbinda, Djibo and Kelbo (in the Sahel region).
  • ​Disruptions to the supply of markets in border communes that may lead to above-average price levels and speculative practices around the sale of industrial animal feed during the lean season.
  • Increased overall acute malnutrition rates owing to reduced household food access on the one hand, and, on the other, limited access to health centers, which are closed or experiencing an operational slowdown.

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH SEPTEMBER

 

At the national level

In areas less affected by insecurity, poor households have normal access to the food that they have produced themselves. Markets are well supplied, and basic cereal prices are slightly down (11 percent) on the previous year and generally stable compared to the five-year average. Harvests have been average to above-average, and households are expected to experience a typical lean season between June and September.

Households continue to place stocks of income-generating products (sesame, black-eyed peas and peanuts) on the market at above-average prices: 5 percent for black-eyed peas, 12 percent for peanuts and 30 percent for sesame.

There is sufficient water available for market gardening activities to take place normally. In large production sites, prices of the main crops are around the average (11,000 to 15,000 CFA francs per crate of tomatoes and 15,000 CFA francs per 50kg bag of onions). These activities are expected to produce typical incomes until April/May.

The rainy season is likely to start on time between April and June, with above-average precipitation between June and August (NMME, Precipitation Probability Forecasts, February 2019). This will encourage the regeneration of pastures between June and July and will also force wholesalers and large producers to put their stocks on the market before the first maize harvest in August.

The Government received technical and financial support from its partners to acquire 40,000 tons of cereals for food security stock replenishment. Although this need is twice as big as usual, it will not seriously disrupt the functioning of markets because stocks of wholesalers and producer unions in production areas are 30 percent above average. Thus, with generally normal household demand, cereal prices are expected to rise slightly above the average seasonal trend.

With average or above-average stocks, along with average or above-average incomes and slightly above-average prices, poor households in the most stable areas will have typical access to food until August and are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the period.

Livelihood zones 7 and 8

The security situation in these zones has greatly deteriorated, with an upsurge in attacks by armed groups on security forces and civilians and the kidnapping of humanitarian actors. Attacks on market infrastructure and the destruction of property is driving households towards urban centers considered to be safer. In early January, attacks on communities resulted in massive loss of life and property and contributed to an increase of approximately 101,000 in the number of internally displaced persons, over 73 percent of whom are in the Sahel region.

Despite this worrying security situation, the central markets remain relatively well supplied by traders. On the other hand, local markets in the communes bordering Mali and Niger are experiencing a slowdown, as they are less frequented by traders and households. Self-production remains the main source of food for poor host households. Internally displaced persons, however, are beginning to obtain cereal supplies using income from the sale of their animals. The prices of the main cereals are around the average, although with slight to moderate increases for millet on the Gorom-Gorom and Dori markets.

Most border communes are home to livestock markets that usually feed the central markets, namely Youba, Djibo, Dori and Gorom-Gorom.  These livestock markets are difficult to access, forcing households to take their animals straight to the central markets.  Market demand remains unsatisfactory, with overall sales rates below 80 percent. However, domestic and external demand (to Ghana) for goats is higher, with sales rates ranging from 76 percent in the Gorom-Gorom market to 97 percent in the Youba market.  The prices of small ruminants are generally stable compared to the five-year average, and the terms of trade favor farmers. The sale of a ram allows an individual to acquire 150kg of millet, more than average.

The start of the lean season in these zones is expected to be characterized by increased demand for industrial animal feed pending the regeneration of pasture in July. This is due to the inaccessibility of normal livestock rest sites and the frequent animal thefts that occur there.  With the increased demand for industrial animal feed, the current high price (23 percent above the average) could rise even further until June because of the speculative behavior of traders. Increasing expenditure on livestock feed will negatively affect households’ purchasing power for basic foodstuffs.

The Government and its partners are providing food assistance to internally displaced persons in the field (28 percent of IDPs). During this month, the World Food Program (WFP) was able to distribute a monthly food ration to 30,784 people, or 30 percent of IDPs. Cash transfers are also planned for around 9,000 households but will be concentrated in more accessible urban centers.

Overall, with the depletion of host household stocks from April onwards, households’ dependency on markets will be greater, and their declining purchasing power will limit their access to food. As a result, overall acute malnutrition rates, which range from 10.1 percent in Soum Province to 13.4 percent in Séno Province (SMART, October 2018), could remain stable or increase. Poor host households and IDPs could then be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between May and September.

For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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