Supply and Market Outlook

Southern Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

January 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

This report provides a summary of changes to regional maize availability estimates and markets in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (countries monitored by FEWS NET in southern Africa) as well as South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, and Swaziland. It updates FEWS NET’s Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook Report published in August 2016.

Key Messages

  • Based on updated 2015/16 production, opening stock, consumption, and strategic reserve figures, the regional maize balance for the  2016/17 marketing year is now estimated to be a deficit of just over 5 million MT. On average, the region typically has an aggregate maize surplus of nearly 3,000,000 MT, making this year’s shortage a significant anomaly. Zimbabwe’s uncovered maize deficit remains the largest in the region, followed by Malawi and Mozambique.  

  • With the persistence of the maize export ban in Zambia, the main source of imports for maize deficit region’s in the country will remain international imports, including those supplies re-exported from South Africa.  Maize supplies are expected to be constrained through the lean season and prices will remain well above average across the region, especially in Malawi and Mozambique. 

  • Limited seed availability coupled with persistently low vegetative status following last year’s drought may constrain regional production for another year and should be monitored closely. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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