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As the result of ongoing humanitarian assistance and above average second season harvest, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist in areas of Sofala and Manica provinces. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) also persist in southern semiarid areas where households faced the second consecutive year of a poor harvest due to drought as well as part of Cabo Delgado where conflict continues, and tropical cyclone Kenneth disrupted the 2019 agriculture season. The rest of the country is in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
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From July to August, maize grain prices increased rapidly in Tete, Chimoio, Nampula markets by 40 percent on average. These price increases in typical surplus markets in the central and northern regions reflect below average maize grain availability due to below average supply. August maize grain prices in all monitored markets are 39 percent above last year’s prices on average, and 28 percent above the five-year average. As parts of the country are experiencing atypically early lean season conditions rapid maize grain price increases are expected through February 2020.
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According to the international and national forecasts, the start of the 2019/20 rainy season will most likely be below average with a potential for a late and erratic onset in central and southern areas. Delays in the start of season will likely result in reduced area planted. Cumulative rainfall for the 2019/20 season is most likely to be average to above average in northern Mozambique; however, southern areas will most likely have below average rainfall. Between December 2019 and March 2020, there is an increased likelihood of a near average number of cyclone strikes.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.