Key Message Update

Late season rains do not change projected Crisis outcomes

March 2018

March - May 2018

June - September 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • While the typical lean season extends through March, green food is not available as usual to supplement food needs due to early and mid-season dryness. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are emerging across much of interior Gaza and Inhambane, northern Maputo, southern Tete, and parts of Manica and Sofala provinces due to depleted household stocks and below-average incomes. With crop failure or very low yields in these areas, the upcoming harvest is likely to lead to only temporary improvements, except for parts of northwestern Sofala.

  • Above-average rainfall throughout February in central Mozambique, particularly in central Manica and Sofala provinces, caused localized flooding that required emergency intervention by the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC). In mid and late February, the entire southern region also received heavy rains, especially northern Inhambane province. Despite this significant rainfall, the outlook for main season production remains unchanged since it was too late to recover wilted crops planted in late January. However, the late rains will provide residual moisture for off-season planting, if poor households can access seeds in suitable areas.

  • Maize grain prices in February remained relatively stable in most monitored markets, except there was a significant rise in Tete, by 64 percent compared to January, following an increase of 38 percent the previous month, putting it close to the five-year average. According to market monitors in Tete, the increase may be linked with the poor prospects for the 2017/18 harvest. Maize meal and rice prices have generally remained stable. Staple food prices are expected to peak in March and seasonally decline in April with the harvests.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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