Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist depsite near average second season production

July 2019

July - September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist across most of the country. In June, food assistance covered nearly 1.6 million people with many households experiencing No Acute Food Insecurity! (IPC Phase 1!) or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in central and northern cyclone affected areas; however, it is expected that there are still households not receiving assistance at all or are receiving very small amounts of food assistance. As a result, it is expected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area level outcomes are present.

  • Humanitarian food assistance distributions are expected to be adjusted in July/August based on available funds. According to WFP, as of early July, current funding levels cover roughly 50 and 5 percent of the plan in cyclone and drought affected areas, respectively. As the lean season approaches humanitarian assistance is needed to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps.

  • Second season production in flood affected areas for horticulture crops is progressing well in flood affected areas. Second season vegetables are currently available for consumption and sale in local markets, improving food availability. As for cereals, particularly maize grain, the performance is poor due mostly to the infestation by fall armyworm (FAW). In drought affected areas, second season is well below average due to below average residual moisture.

  • Maize grain prices are mixed across monitored markets as the result of varied maize grain supply in markets. From May to June, prices decreased in Chókwe, Maxixe, Beira, Chimoio and Pemba, though remaining above average and last year’s prices. On the other hand, maize grain prices have increased in Maputo, Gorongosa, Mocuba and Nampula. The largest variation occurred in Gorongosa and Mocuba where maize grain prices increased by 49 and 42 percent, respectively. Maize grain prices in June were above the 5-year average in all monitored markets. The significant rise in maize grain prices in some markets may reflect the negative impacts caused by this year´s shocks over crop production.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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