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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the south and begin in central areas

July 2018

July - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are emerging in central semiarid areas and persisting in the south, following crop failure or significantly below-average main season production. Poor households have below-average incomes and little or no food stocks, which has resulted in food consumption gaps. The second season is ongoing but the overall contribution to poor households’ food stocks will be below-average due to below-average residual moisture. In the rest of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will persist through January 2019.

  • Generally, harvested maize grain continues to supply local markets, and in major reference markets, prices continue to decrease or remain stable. On average, June retail maize grain prices were the same as last year’s prices and 13 percent below the five-year average among markets FEWS NET monitors.

  • Even though staple food prices are below-average across major markets, food access continues to be affected by the low purchasing power among poor households given the atypically low agricultural labor income earned during the current season. In addition to the very poor harvest, poor households’ livelihoods in southern and central areas are still recovering from the 2015/16 El Niño drought, even though 2016/17 was one of the best agricultural seasons.

  • Sporadic attacks by unidentified groups, supposedly linked to Islamic extremism, in parts of Cabo Delgado Province have displaced households and disrupted livelihoods, and households are facing increased difficulty accessing markets and fields. It is estimated the displaced population is less than 20 percent of the affected districts’ total populations, and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persist. However, the continuation of attacks and displacement may lead to further disruption of livelihoods and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or even Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes could occur. FEWS NET continues to monitor the situation.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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