Key Message Update

Increased chances of erratic rainfall and above-average food prices for most of the southern and central region

September 2015
2015-Q3-1-1-MZ-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) is expected through December for the majority of the rural population in the country. However, between October and December, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes will continue in semi-arid and arid parts of Gaza, Inhambane, and the southern parts of Sofala province. During this period, poor households in these areas will be able to meet their basic food needs through market purchases and the expansion of the typical livelihood strategies, but they will be unable to afford other essential non-food needs. 

  • The national forecast for the 2015/16 agriculture season indicates that the bulk of the country will receive near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while the northern region has a high probability of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall from October through December. Rainfall will avail agriculture labor opportunities in land preparation, cultivation, and weeding during the first half of the season and will improve water availability. However, increased chances of below-normal rainfall levels in the south and central during this period could limit agriculture-related labor opportunities.  The forecast for the January to March period indicates that in the entire southern and most of the central zone, there is an increased chance of receiving near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall. 

  • Maize grain prices from July to August continued to follow an increasing trend in most markets and was stable in other markets. With the exception of a few large markets, this year’s prices are above the five-year average in all monitored markets. According to the Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA), following seasonal trends, the levels of maize grain moving from the central to the southern region has been gradually decreasing, contributing to reduced supply levels in the southern markets.

For more detailed analysis, see the Mozambique Food Security Outlook for July.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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