Malawi

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist through March 2026 in parts of southern Malawi — including Phalombe, Blantyre, Mulanje, Thyolo, Nsanje, and Chikwawa — and localized areas of the central region, driven by limited purchasing power, below-average labor opportunities, and above-average staple food prices.
• Maize prices remained atypically stable in December, averaging 1,178 MWK/kilogram (kg), as private traders reduced prices to offload stocks. This trend was reinforced by the government’s announcement to procure 200,000 metric tons (MT) of maize for the lean season response and Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC’s) price stabilization efforts. Additionally, the start of humanitarian food assistance in southern deficit-producing districts helped ease market demand. However, prices remain above average. In Mitundu, the national reference market, November maize prices were approximately 160 percent above the five-year average and 40 percent above last year, according to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).  
• Between October 1 and December 20, rainfall has been average to above average across most areas, particularly along the lakeshore and in southern Malawi, supporting timely land preparation, planting, weeding, and fertilizer application. Above-average rainfall in southern and lakeshore areas has also improved water availability for domestic use and livestock, while pasture conditions have generally improved, supporting favorable livestock body conditions.  However, localized central and northern regions have received below-average rainfall, raising concerns for crop establishment.
• As the 2025/26 lean season humanitarian response continues to scale up, an increasing number of districts in southern Malawi —beyond Neno and Mwanza — are expected to transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) between January and March 2026. Beneficiaries are receiving either a 50 kg bag of maize or a cash transfer of 90,000 MWK per month, covering 25-50 percent of monthly kilocalorie needs. The response is expected to expand across the southern districts, including Mulanje, Thyolo, Nsanje, Chikwawa, and Blantyre. In the central region, Salima, Lilongwe, Dowa, and Nkhotakota are also expected to benefit from the program. 

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 23, 2025.