Madagascar

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most Grand South and Grand Southeast districts. Food consumption gaps are expected to widen during the peak lean season between January and March before improving with the start of the main harvest in April. Since the rainy season began in November, erratic and delayed rainfall has negatively affected crop production and reduced demand for agricultural labor. Below-average to average rainfall is forecast from December to April; if below-average conditions dominate, crop losses are likely.
• Poor and very poor households in the Grand South have depleted root and tuber stocks atypically early, increasing reliance on market purchases amid seasonally high food prices. Many households are resorting to negative coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency, selling productive assets, and consuming wild fruits such as raketa to mitigate consumption gaps. Reduced crop production is limiting hiring by better-off households, reducing labor opportunities and further constraining income for poor and very poor households.
• Households in the Grand Southeast are currently meeting their minimum food needs with off-season rice and fish, but are expected to shift to wild fruits such as breadfruit between January and April. As the cyclone season progresses, the risk of excessive rainfall and cyclone-related crop damage is increasing, along with potential infrastructure losses and higher transport costs. Despite variability in the start-of-season dates across the region, current average to above-average soil moisture levels should support normal establishment of maize and other cereals in most areas of the East and Southeast.
• The annual inflation rate declined from 7.5 percent in September to 7.4 percent in October 2025, the lowest level since June 2024. The International Monetary Fund projects continued decreases through the end of 2025, with inflation expected to reach 7.3 percent. This easing could provide some relief for household purchasing power and improve market access for poor households.
• Rice imports more than doubled in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024; another surge is expected if the February-April 2026 growing season is poor. While imports may temporarily improve affordability, they will negatively affect income opportunities for agricultural producers and laborers in the medium term, as imported rice is generally less expensive than local rice.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 22, 2025.