Key Message Update

Food security outcomes improve with the harvest in the short-term

June 2019

May 2019

June - September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes prevail in areas affected by conflict in DRC, cyclone affected areas of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and areas significantly affected by the drought and the deteriorating macroeconomy in Zimbabwe. Although, as a result of the harvest in May, food security outcomes improved as households started consuming own foods in many parts of the region. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are present across most other parts of the region

  • In the June to September period, most poor households are likely to continue consuming own foods and engage in dry-season self-employment activities. Availability of these income sources are expected to be below average in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho, which were affected by cyclone and/or poor rainfall. As a result, most of the region is anticipated to continue facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, areas with a poor harvest, below average incomes, and/or affected by conflict are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).  

  • Cereal availability, specifically for maize grain, in most markets is increasing as farmers sell own crops for income. Maize grain will continue to circulate freely from surplus to deficit areas across the region.  In countries with a significantly below average harvest, like Zimbabwe, atypically high levels of imports are anticipated from Zambia and South Africa. Maize grain prices are currently stable, although above the five-year average and last year’s prices in most markets. However, in Zimbabwe due to macroeconomic shocks, prices continue to significantly increase.

  • In DRC, livelihoods continue to be disrupted due to Ebola and conflict. There has been an increase number of attacks by armed groups in North Kivu. In addition, inter-ethnic clashes in South Kivu resulted in the displacement of over 20,000 households since the beginning of March. In Zimbabwe, the macroeconomy continues to deteriorate. In May fuel prices increased by nearly 50 percent and continued devaluation of the currency, continues to drive increases in food prices and transportation costs; decreasing the purchasing power of households.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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