Key Message Update

Staple prices decline across most of the region as demand for staple purchases decreases

June 2018

May 2018

Projected food security outcomes, May 2018.

June - September 2018

Projected food security outcomes, June-September 2018.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food supplies from the 2018 harvest are improving the food security situation in most parts of the region and households are consuming their own-produced cereals and relying less on staple purchases. Most households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes during May and from June to September. Areas affected by earlier seasonal dryness in southern parts of Mozambique and  Madagascar are already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, as well as three provinces affected by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Tanganyika, Kassai, and Ituri). From June to September Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and the DRC.

  • As more households are beginning to consume food supplies from the 2018 harvest, prices for major staples, especially maize, are following typical seasonal trends and have started decreasing. In general, prices for maize grain in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe are below last year and about 20-33 percent below the five-year average. However, given the below-normal 2018 maize yields because of the erratic and poorly distributed rainfall, prices are expected to start to increase earlier than normal this consumption year since farming households are likely to begin relying on markets for food purchases earlier than normal.  

  • Ongoing harvests are providing labor opportunities, and this is allowing very poor and poor households to earn income for staple purchases. However, when compared to average these available opportunities are limited and competition among households for labor is high. In some areas the increased competition for labor will push down labor wage rates and earnings. Household purchasing power is likely to decline later in the consumption year once food prices begin to rise earlier than normal.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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