Key Message Update

Abnormal dryness across the region affecting cropping activities and agriculture labor

December 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The depletion of household food stocks, below-average incomes, and increase in market prices will likely lead to an increase in the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in areas of Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe through at least early 2019. Areas affected by conflict in DRC are also anticipated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The rest of the region will likely continue experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

  • The start of the 2018/19 rainy season has been delayed across the region, negatively impacting agricultural activities. In most areas of Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique, the start of the season was delayed by 10 days, although a 30 to 40-day delay of season has been noted in parts of southern DRC and Lesotho. Additionally, parts of South Africa, western Zimbabwe, southern Angola, western Madagascar, Zambia, and Lesotho continue to experience anomalously high daytime temperatures negatively impacting cropping conditions.

  • Despite a delay in the season, agricultural activities are ongoing and households are engaged in planting. In a normal year, better-off households pay for labor through in-kind means including maize grain, slightly improving poor households’ food access. However, better-off households are withholding grain from the 2017/18 harvest as they anticipate a poor season. This will likely decrease in-kind payments poor households normally receive through agriculture labor.

  • In DRC, efforts to manage the spread of Ebola in Ituri and North Kivu have been negatively affected by conflict. Some northern parts of Mozambique have also experienced sporadic armed attacks. For both Mozambique and DRC, the likely continuation of these events is anticipated to negatively affect agricultural activities. Zimbabwe’s inflation increased to a nine-year high coupled with significant price increases on commodities are likely affecting poor households’ market access.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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