Key Message Update

Poor households expected to rely on market purchases earlier than usual

August 2018

August - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Following below-average 2018 harvests in many parts of the region, poor households in southern areas of Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and central and southern Mozambique are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through at least January. In eastern DRC, where conflict continues to disrupt households' access to food and income, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is also expected. The rest of the region is likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period.

  • Most markets in the region remain well supplied and prices for maize grain are still slightly below average. However, many poor households are expected to deplete their crops by August, two months earlier than usual. This will increase demand for staple food from markets earlier than usual and is expected to trigger maize price increases in several areas of Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. The retail price of maize is expected to be roughly 15 to 30 percent above the five-year average between August 2018 and January 2019.

  • Increasing conflict and insecurity in Tanganyika province of the DRC is limiting humanitarian access to over 300,000 displaced people. Recent reports from the United Nations indicate that several humanitarian partners operating in the area have suspended humanitarian assistance delivery due to insecurity and this may result in worse food security outcomes among many who are already experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.  FEWS NET also continues monitoring insecurity incidents in Mozambique where sporadic attacks in Cabo Delgado Province continue to disrupt livelihoods.

  • An increased likelihood of an El Niño event is forecast to occur during the main part of the summer cropping season. Historically El Niño has been associated with below-average rainfall in Southern Africa between October and December, when summer cereals are planted in most parts of the region. Below-average rainfall during this time would likely result in lower levels of planting and weeding, and consequently lower availability of agricultural labor for poor households who rely on this source of income during the lean season.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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