Supply and Market Outlook

DRC Supply and Market Outlook

January 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Between October and November 2017, a series of market assessments were conducted across Southern Africa by FEWS NET, in collaboration with key national and international partners. The findings from the assessment in eastern DRC are key inputs to this report.

  • In 2016, maize production in eastern DRC fell while cassava production increased.  Conflict related reduction in area planted as well as destruction from the Fall Army Worm (FAW) infestation are expected to contribute towards below average 2017 crop (Figure 1).  Both factors will likely remain relevant through the early part of 2018 and consequently result in weak expectations for 2018 harvests.  

  • Market supply for both local and imported maize and cassava will continue to be impacted by a multitude of factors including the presence of plant diseases, weather related shocks, conflict and population displacements.  For maize, in particular, export policies in neighboring countries will continue to influence the extent to which imported supplies are able to cover local production deficits.

  • Prices for both maize and cassava remain high in most major markets across eastern DRC (Figure 2).  The exception is maize prices in southeastern DRC provinces such as Haut Katanga, that have seen maize grain and maize flour prices drop in recent months owing to surplus flows from Zambia.  Prices are expected to follow seasonal trends in the coming months, and will depend on the performance of upcoming harvests during the first half of 2018.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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