Key Message Update

Resurgence of conflicts in the agricultural production basins of North and South Kivu

May 2019

May 2019

Carte des résultats estimés plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, octobre 2018 à janvier 2019: Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC)  en l'Est et la region des Kasai, Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud est. Minimale (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord

June - September 2019

Carte de la Sécurité alimentaire courante, février 2019: Minimal (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le centre-nord et sud, Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud-est et partis de l'est et le centre-sud, Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans parts de l'est, nord-est et centre

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to NOAA climate forecasts, rainfall over the eastern bimodal region of DRC will be near average until the end of the current season B (January to July) in the northeast and central-east with a cumulative total rainfall 90 percent of normal. This situation bodes well for average harvests, especially for food crops in Rutshuru and Masisi in North Kivu.

  • Over the past three months, various armed groups have increased attacks and abuses in the Masisi and Rutshuru territories in North Kivu, while in the neighbouring territories (Beni and Lubero), there has been an overall disruption of agricultural activities and limited access to livelihoods by the population. This situation could compromise agricultural production in this part of the East considered as the agricultural breadbasket of the region.

  • The ongoing inter-ethnic clashes between the Banyamulenge and Banyindu in Minembwe commune, South Kivu province, have displaced some 20,000 households since March 2019, causing them to abandon their livelihoods. This situation occurs in a pivotal period of transhumance for livestock farmers and crop preparation for farmers in this current season B, which would make the lean season earlier than usual.

  • Despite efforts by the government and humanitarian actors, the Ebola outbreak in the northeastern part of the country persists, partly as a result of the emergency response being sabotaged by some of the armed groups operating in the region. To date, there has been an increase in new confirmed cases from an average of two cases per week in the first trimester of 2019 to eight cases per week currently. This situation reduces household participation in agricultural activities, and in the short-term results in low food availability in this region.

  • The continuation of the 2018-19 crop year's major crop activities in the southeastern part of the country coincides with the ban on imports of maize from Zambia. This will limit the availability of maize in this region which normally imports 70 percent of their maize from Zambia.  This could raise maize prices in southeastern markets and limit household access.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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