Key Message Update

Relative calm in conflict areas during the Season A harvest period

January 2019

January 2019

Carte des résultats estimés plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, octobre 2018 à janvier 2019: Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC)  en l'Est et la region des Kasai, Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud est. Minimale (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord

February - May 2019

Carte des résultats estimés plus probables de la sécurité alimentaire, février à mai 2019: Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC)  en l'Est et la region des Kasai, Stress (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le sud est. Minimale (Phase 1 de l'IPC) dans le nord

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Since mid-December 2018, the season A harvest has been ongoing in the northeast and east-central regions of the country. Compared to the previous year, production is estimated to be average due to the good agro-climatic conditions observed during the season in the main production basins. This production could lead to an improvement in the duration of household food stocks and therefore to seed availability for the next agricultural season.

  • Despite the trend in displaced persons returning to their homes observed in 2018, which is also recorded in the recent MSF survey from December 2018, displaced families in Djugu, Ituri, estimated at nearly 40,000 people, continue to face a dire situation. Those in the Nizi health district continue to live in a precarious situation due to the insecurity and renewed hostilities in the area.  Mortality rates, particularly among children under 5 years of age (3,6/10 000) have increased according to the recent MSF survey.  This insecurity, which has deprived households of two successive agricultural seasons, could likely continue, leading to deteriorating conditions.

  • The October 2018 to March 2019 rainy season began almost a month late in all southern African countries, particularly Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa, with well below average rainfall. This situation points to poor crop performance in these countries which will likely affect exports to neighboring countries. This will have a particularly negative impact on Haut-Katanga province in the DRC which is an agricultural production deficit area and imports 70 percent of its food, especially maize, from Zambia and South Africa.

  • Apart from the territory of Beni in North Kivu, where abuses by armed groups continue, there has been a relative calm since December 2018 in almost all conflict areas in the DRC. This calm period follows the surrender of thousands of MALAIKA militiamen in the provinces of South Kivu and Maniema as well as the cantonment of FRPI militiamen in Ituri province. This situation is conducive to the return of thousands of displaced people to these areas. According to OCHA, more than 80 percent of the 13,000 recently displaced people reportedly returned to Fizi territory in South Kivu during this harvest period.

  • The outbreak of Ebola virus continues to kill people in North Kivu and Ituri provinces. As of January 26, 2019, there were 715 registered cases, including 443 deaths. However, the low level of security in affected areas, particularly in Beni, through untimely attacks by armed groups in the city center, has reduced efforts to respond to the disease and prevented the normal continuation of agricultural activities. In the medium term, a significant deterioration in food security in this area could be expected.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo