Remote Monitoring Report

Delays in input distribution may adversely impact the 2014/15 agricultural season

September 2014
2014-Q3-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food from own production and market purchases continues to be available to the majority of households across the country. However, food prices are showing a stabilizing trend instead of a declining trend that is typical for this time of the year. These stable price trends might indicate a decrease in some food stocks in main markets. 

  • The start of the Rural Development Program Is delayed and this is delaying the distribution of agricultural inputs to poor households and could negatively impact planting times and crop choices. 

  • Meat prices in and around Namibe have been increasing in recent months; likely a sign that most pastoralists are choosing to keep their animals due to slightly better pasture conditions. In Cunene pastoralists fearing drought are engaging in a late transhumance, which might affect both animal body conditions and food security outcomes in the medium-term. 

  • Small pockets of poor households  in the Coastal, Fish, Horticulture, and Non-farm income zone and in the less populated areas of Cunene and Namibe (Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum zone) will continue to be Stressed (Phase 2) between September and December. During this same period areas in the Southern Livestock zone will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes.  

Zone Current Anomalies Projected Anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum There has been a delay in distributing agricultural inputs to the poor households in the region and this has caused a delay in land preparation for the upcoming agricultural season. The inability to receive the necessary inputs for agricultural production on time could adversely affect agricultural production for the upcoming season. 
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Even though cattle conditions are mediocre, some pastoralists in Cunene are deciding to move them in search of better pasture areas because they are anticipating a poor rainy season.  This late movement of livestock might considerably reduce the ability of pastoralists to produce meat and milk during the October – December period due to deteriorating animal health conditions following transhumance.
Coastal Fish, Horticulture, and non-farm income The rural population base continues to shrink due to the constant migration of households to urban centers.  This decrease in population size might make it very difficult for the remaining population to be included in planning programs, including agricultural inputs and food assistance programming in the near future

 

Projected Outlook Through December 2014

 National

  • According to MINAGRI, preliminary harvest estimates are 1.7 million MT for maize, 43,000 tons of millet, and 48,134 tons of sorghum. In comparison to last season’s production levels, these 2013/14 production estimates represent an increase of approximately 8 percent for maize, 10 percent for millet, and 3.6 percent for sorghum.
  • The overall food security situation continues to be stable following the 2013/14 crop harvest, which has supplied foodstuff throughout the country. Normally food prices are falling at this time, but they have started to show a stabilizing trend in most main markets around the country. This price trend might indicate a decrease in stock products from the current harvest.
  • In regards to the upcoming 2014/15 agricultural season, the Ministry of Agriculture (through Institute of Agricultural Development, [IDA] in Portuguese) met with provincial directors in Luanda from September 4-6th in order to kick-start the Program for Rural Development (PDR).  So far agricultural inputs have not been distributed to any poor smallholders for the upcoming season. Discussions during this meeting could shape the national short and medium-term food security planning and decision making.

Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces) and Coastal Fishing Horticulture and Non-Farm Income Zone (parts of Benguela and Kwanza-Sul)

  • In Kwanza-Sul the food security situation has improved slightly over the months but continue to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Poor household access to basic foodstuff continues to be problematic due to rising prices.  Many households from the area of Porto Amboim are relocating to the area of Waku-Kungo, where the Aldeia Nova agro-industrial project is being implemented in order to settle down and find jobs. As households settle down in Waku-Kungo they’ll need to adapt to the livelihoods in this new area.
  • In Namibe cattle conditions are slightly better than they were during this same period last year and it is possible that livestock will have adequate water until the end of September. After September the rains will start and this will continue to improve cattle conditions. Pastoralist are optimistic about the upcoming rainy season and there has been a reduction in the number of animals culled, increasing the price of meat. In March meat in Namibe was selling for around KZ 500/kg and is currently selling for around KZ 1,000/kg.
  • Pastoralists in Cunene, however, are anticipating a poor rainy season, so they are moving their animals much later than normal.  Most pastoralists are coming from Ondjiva, Mongua, and Ombandja and moving towards Eastern Cuanhama (Ochimolo mostly) and Cuvelai. Some are going as far as 180 to 300 Km away towards the Cubango river bank.  Upcoming seasonal prospects are poor due to a combination of the late movement of animals and the absence of agricultural inputs. Even though the province harvested around 32,000 tons of millet and 14,000 tons of sorghum, the most vulnerable households are expected to finish their own production supplies by late September.  

 

 

ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. For more information click here.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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