Remote Monitoring Report

Low cereal supplies and higher than normal prices in the south

January 2015
2015-Q1-1-1-AO-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The agricultural season is progressing normally and rainfall is consistent in most of the country, however cumulative rainfall to-date in the high production areas in the central and south-central region is slightly below average. Rainfall deficits have also increased in the southern region in recent weeks. Vegetation conditions appear to be good, but are expected to deteriorate if this rainfall pattern continues. 

  • The movement of cereal supplies from western surplus areas of Huila to Lubango has been temporarily disrupted due to problems with train services. As a result available supplies during the lean season are much lower than usual in Huila Province. Additionally, a recent increase in fuel surcharges will increase prices further for food transported by vehicle. These higher than normal food prices could constrain access for poor households that are relying mostly on market purchases. 

  • Cattle prices in the southern part of the country have increased since last month. This rise could be due to relatively good pasture conditions in some areas of Namibe Province (Bibala and Camucuio) and most of Cunene Province. These higher selling prices will improve the relative purchasing power of pastoralists. 

  • Due to lower than normal cereal supplies and higher than normal prices faced by poor households in the south, the current acute food insecurity outcomes among the majority of poor households is Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and these outcomes are expected to continue through March. However, once the harvest arrives in April, households in the Southern Livestock, Millet, and Sorghum livelihood zone are likely to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes through June. 

Zone current anomalies projected anomalies
Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Generally poor rainfall this season and in previous season has forced some poor households to consider other income generating opportunities. As pastoralists shift to horticulture and small animal rearing this should improve poor household livelihoods and increase the local availability of vegetables. 

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JUNE 2015

 National
  • As the lean season continues major staple food supplies are decreasing in the major markets (Huila, Namibe, Cunene, and Huambo) while demand continues to increase. As a result, price trends are on the rise. One of the factors contributing to the lower than usual food supplies in markets and higher than normal prices is the disruption of train services for transport of the commodities and a recent 25 percent increase in fuel prices.
  • The low maize supply levels and higher prices in João de Almeida (a source market in Huila) has resulted in many poor households eating less preferred foods. Households in the areas of Lubango (Huila), Namibe and Cunene (mostly in Xangongo region) are consuming potatoes and millet instead of the usual maize or sorghum. Some households in other parts of Cunene do not have to resort to eating less preferred foods because their markets are receiving supplies from Namibia. 
Areas of Concern: Southern Livestock, Millet, Sorghum Livelihood zone (parts of Cunene and Namibe Provinces)
  • In Namibe, the agricultural season is not progressing as expected, even though relatively large quantities of inputs were distributed earlier in the season. The area received little to no rains for most of the month of December, which could adversely impact vegetation conditions. However, some localized rains have slightly improved conditions for cattle. As a result, cattle is now being sold for AKZ 125,000 as compared to the average price of AKZ 80,000.
  • As a result of lower cereal supplies available in the source market in Huila, grain prices are sharply rising in Namibe.  Average maize prices in the past month have increased from AKZ 45/Kg to AKZ 53/Kg, sorghum from AKZ 60/Kg to AKZ 75/Kg, and millet prices from AKZ 50/Kg to AKZ 60/Kg. The relatively lower millet price is allowing poor householders to substitute it for the much more expensive maize or sorghum.
  • In Cunene the rains have restarted after a brief interruption during the third week of December. Vegetation conditions are good even though rain intensity and distribution is still irregular. Because of these good conditions pastoralists should will have to travel much shorter distances with their animals. Vegetation conditions are good. 

 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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