Monitor Sazonal

Continued adequate moisture conditions raise hopes for average to above-average harvest

Setembro 2016

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas – desloque o cursor sobre os mapas para ver classificações de fases de segurança alimentar para acampamentos na Nigéria.
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceiros nacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.
Parceiros: 
USGS

As mensagens-chave

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) started its southward retreat in early September but it remains either at or north of its average position, which could mean a normal to longer growing period.

  • From early July until mid-September, mostly average to above-average rainfall that has been well-distributed over time has fallen throughout most of the region (Figures 1 and 2), which is ensuring good growing conditions.

  • Seasonal rainfall deficits (Figure 2) are minimal and limited to the extreme western part of the Sahel, the middle of Niger and the southern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries; these deficits are not expected to adversely affect crop development.

  • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks (Sept 23-29 and Sept 30-Oct 6) calls for a drier agro-pastoral zone, likely signaling a normal end of the rainy season, and for moderate to heavy rains over the rest of the region where agricultural conditions will remain favorable. 

  • Heavy rainfall over the past two months has caused flooding in some areas along the Niger, Benue and Senegal River basins. Based on the past two weeks’ rainfall amount and frequency as well as the next two-week forecast, the risk of flooding remains high in Senegal and Nigeria.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) reached its northernmost position at the end of August and started its southward retreat in early September. However, the retreat has been slower than average, leaving the ITF north of its climatological position over eastern Mauritania, Mali and Niger and at its climatological position in western Mauritania and over Chad (Figure 3).
  • The seasonal “minor dry season” in the bi-modal zone finished as usual in late August and early September.
  • Seasonal rainfall (April-September) has been average to above average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2).  Rainfall deficits are light and limited to a few areas scattered across the region including western Senegal, central Niger, and the southern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries.  These deficits, however, are not expected to have an adverse impact on crop and pasture production because:
    • the rainfall distribution over time was favorable without any long dry spells
    • most of the previously mentioned deficit areas were wetter than average during previous month
  • In some places, the heavy rainfall during August resulted in flooding in low lying areas and along major rivers.  Light to moderate flooding has been reported in Mali and Niger along the Niger River and in Nigeria along the Benue and Niger Rivers.  Flooding has also been reported in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Senegal over low lying areas with often poor drainage systems.
  • While rainfall subsided over most of the Niger River basin during the past two weeks, the Senegal and Benue basins have received heavy and frequent rains.  Since the next two week forecast also calls for heavy rains over a large portion of these two basins, the risk of flooding remains high.
  • The mostly adequate and well-distributed seasonal rainfall across all agro-ecological zones is favorable to crop development, and an average to above-average harvest is expected as a result.

Forecasts

  • NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains in the region with the exception of the agro-pastoral zone where drier conditions are expected.  Rainfall is also expected to be below average in southern Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal for the next two weeks (Sept 23-29 and Sept 30-Oct 6).
  • In next month, which officially marks the end of the growing period in West Africa, the NOAA-NCEP seasonal forecast calls for average rainfall across the whole region.

Acerca Deste Relatorio

O monitor sazonal é produzido para cada uma das quatro regiões que a FEWS NET abrange durante a estação de produção. Este relatório actualiza os totais de precipitação, o impacto sobre a produção e as previsões a curto prazo. Produzido pelo cientista regional da FEWS NET USGS e pelo Gestor Técnico Regional da FEWS NET, é elaborado a cada 20 dias durante a estação de produção. Mais informações sobre o nosso trabalho aqui.

About FEWS NET

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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