Areas of Highest Concern

Motivo de preocupação

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Anti-government protests and ongoing tension in Juba in mid-May raises concern of the possiblity of an uptick in conflict.

Motivo de preocupação

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Motivo de preocupação

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Current Observations

Humanitarian actors remain unable to reach the town of Rann where about 30,000 people have returned after fleeing to Cameroon.  

Motivo de preocupação

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Current Observations

Rainfall during the Gu/long rains through May 5 is less than 55 percent of normal acorss much of the Horn of Africa. 

Other Areas of Concern

Motivo de preocupação

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

Current Observations

According to OCHA, over 55,000 people were displaced in April due to conflict by non-state actors in Nangahar province, mainly in Khogyani and Sherzad districts. 

Motivo de preocupação

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

Current Observations

The Ebola outbreak continues in North Kivu, in part due to continuing conflict, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets.

Motivo de preocupação

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

Despite the delayed and below average maize harvest, food security outcomes are anticipated to improve in the short-term across most of the region.  

Motivo de preocupação

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Current Observations

In Cabo Delgado, as of April 30, an estimated 21,000 people are displaced and living in accommodation centers due to flooding.  

Motivo de preocupação

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Current Observations

Improved tuber production in the south of Madagascar is expected to improve food security outcomes in the coming months. 

Areas of Highest Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Anti-government protests and ongoing tension in Juba in mid-May raises concern of the possiblity of an uptick in conflict.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

In mid-February, Hadi and Houthi representatives agreed to a first phase of redeployment of forces from areas near the major Red Sea ports, which could begin in late February.

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2018 main season. Nearly 1.9 million people are currently displaced.

Humanitarian actors remain unable to reach the town of Rann where about 30,000 people have returned after fleeing to Cameroon.  

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Gu/long rains season has so far been well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Rainfall during the Gu/long rains through May 5 is less than 55 percent of normal acorss much of the Horn of Africa. 

Other Areas of Concern

País ou região Motivo de preocupação Observações atuais
Afghanistan

Drought negatively affected 2017/2018 rainfed wheat yields and pastoral conditions. Furthermore, prolonged conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods and lead to displacement.  

According to OCHA, over 55,000 people were displaced in April due to conflict by non-state actors in Nangahar province, mainly in Khogyani and Sherzad districts. 

DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities.

The Ebola outbreak continues in North Kivu, in part due to continuing conflict, limiting some households’ access to livelihoods and markets.

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Despite the delayed and below average maize harvest, food security outcomes are anticipated to improve in the short-term across most of the region.  

Mozambique

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

In Cabo Delgado, as of April 30, an estimated 21,000 people are displaced and living in accommodation centers due to flooding.  

Madagascar

Consecutive years of below-average rainfall in the South have reduced agricultural production and household incomes.

Improved tuber production in the south of Madagascar is expected to improve food security outcomes in the coming months. 

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Peak needs 2018

FEWS NET Data Center link

Food security outlook story map

Os nossos Parceiros

A Rede de Sistemas de AlertaPrecoce de Fome é líder na provisão de alertas precoces e análises relativas à insegurança alimentar. Estabelecida em 1985 com o fim de auxiliar os responsáveis pela tomada de decisões a elaborar planos para crises humanitárias, a FEWS NET provê análises baseadas em evidências em cerca de 35 países. Entre os membros implementadores refere-se a NASA , NOAA, USDA e o USGS, assim como a Chemonics International Inc. e a Kimetrica. Leia mais sobre o nosso trabalho.

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