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Presence Country
Food Security Outlook

La sécurité alimentaire pourrait se dégrader au Lac en l’absence d’assistance humanitaire

February 2019

February - May 2019

Le pays est en phase 1, sauf Lac en phase 2 ! et le Tibesti en phase 3.

June - September 2019

Le pays est en phase 1, sauf Lac en phase 2 ! et le Tibesti en phase 3.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Having lost their livelihoods, displaced persons and refugees around Lake Chad are reliant on assistance for food consumption and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until May. Their situation will deteriorate into the Crisis phase (IPC Phase 3) from May/June, with food assistance uncertain and employment opportunities scarce. In Tibesti, households affected by the conflict face consumption deficits.

  • The food situation of poor households may deteriorate in Kanem, Bahr el-Ghazal, Tandjilé, the two Logone regions, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari between March and September, due to depleted cereal stocks. This may lead to Stressed food security (IPC Phase 2) for these households between June and September. Most households in the rest of the country have average stock levels, meaning their food insecurity will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 

  • Pastoral conditions are generally good. Animals are in satisfactory physical condition and will remain so until April, before deteriorating between May and June, as in an average year. Their condition will improve from July as pastures regenerate, but pastoral income will remain low due to decreased prices for livestock.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current situation

Agropastoral conditions: Flood recession sorghum (berbéré) harvests are in progress and are estimated to be above the five-year average (11 percent), according to the Directorate of Agricultural Statistics (DSA) of the Ministry of Agriculture. In the polders around Lake Chad, harvests of cash crops (maize, wheat, beans, etc.) are under way. The expected output is higher than the five-year average following the expansion of areas (+9 per cent), according to the Department of Agricultural Production (DPA) of the National Agency for Rural Development Support (ANADER). The current harvest of market garden crops (tomatoes, eggplants, lettuces, cabbages, etc.) is better than that of a normal year. In Mayo Kebbi and Tandjilé, off-season/irrigated rice is growing as normal and harvests are expected in May/June.

Household cereal stocks are generally higher than normal in the Sahel region, as well as in areas with structural deficits such as Kanem and Bahr el-Ghazal, thanks to good harvests in 2018 (source: DSA). In the Lac region, host populations’ cereal stocks are average. However, households of internally displaced persons and refugees with no land and limited agricultural activity have little or no stocks. Households in Tibesti depend solely on markets, whose supplies are dwindling as demand increases. In the Sudanian region (Tandjilé, the two Logone regions, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari), household stocks are slightly below average due to poor rainfed harvests.

Institutional stocks: The current stock level of the National Food Security Office (ONASA) is estimated at 1,860 tons of cereals, which is 9 percent of the usual volume. Ongoing institutional purchases (ONASA) are expected to increase this to 4,000 tons. Cadre Harmonisé findings show that the replenishment of humanitarian organizations’ stocks is lower than normal due to the reduced need for assistance.

Pastoral conditions: Pasture levels are higher than normal and residue from ongoing berbéré harvests is increasing the availability of fodder. Pond levels are generally the same as in a normal year. Animal health is stable and their body condition satisfactory.

Agricultural labor: The current demand is slightly higher than normal and compared with the five-year average due to the increase in cultivated berbéré area (5 percent, according to the DSA) at the national level. This demand is leading to population movements from Guera, Ouaddaï and Batha to Salamat. In Tibesti, however, there are almost no labor opportunities due to insecurity. In the Sudanian region, the demand for labor is less significant and usually family-related. In the Lac region, the supply of agricultural labor is marginally higher than normal due to the presence of refugees, returnees and displaced persons. However, these population groups are involved very little in agricultural activities. According to key sources, workers in the berbéré areas earn around XAF 1,500 per day compared with XAF 1,000 in 2018, which is an increase of 33 percent. At the beginning of February, the daily wage of an agricultural worker in the polders of Guini, Mamdi or Berim (agricultural areas of Bol) was XAF 1,500 compared with XAF 2,000 in 2018, representing a decrease of 25 percent.

Population movements: In the Sahel region, very few population movements have been reported compared with previous years, due to good agricultural production in 2018/2019. However, there have been reports of seasonal population departures from Batha and Guera for berbéré harvests in Salamat. In Kanem and Bahr el-Ghazal, there have been usual population movements to the Lac region due to low structural production in these areas. In Lac, large population movements (around 4,000 people, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – OCHA) have been recorded, following the increased violence since December 2018.

Markets and prices:

  • Cereal supply/availability: In the Sahel region, markets have satisfactory levels of cereal supplies, thanks to good rainfed and off-season harvests, as well as rice imports. The ongoing berbéré harvests are strengthening supply in Guera, Salamat, Batha, Moyen-Chari and Chari-Baguirmi. In Tibesti, there have been reports of problems in food markets. In the Sudanian region, markets in deficit areas (Tandjilé, the two Logone regions, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari) continue to be supplied as normal.
  • Cereal demand: At present, commercial stock replenishment and local household consumption make up the majority of the demand for cereals, in addition to a small institutional demand. In the Sahel region, the demand for staple cereals (millet and sorghum) remains low due to good availability of stocks. Demand in the Sudanian region is average, thanks to the consumption of root vegetables (taro and sweet potato). Demand also remains constant in Tibesti, though supply has fallen as a result of the ongoing conflict.
  • Cereal prices: In general, staple food prices (millet, sorghum, maize) in January 2019 were lower than the five-year average. The price of millet had declined by 24 percent in Moussoro and by 32 percent in Mao compared with the five-year average. In the Sudanian region, staple food prices are either falling or are stable. These variations are due to good stock levels and a lack of demand as a result of households’ lower purchasing power. However, sorghum prices at the Beinamar market (Logone Occidental Region) were up 17 percent on the five-year average. Rice prices are increasing in the Fianga, Léré and Pala markets by 16, 12 and 10 percent respectively compared with the five-year average.
  • Livestock prices are falling in most markets. However, at the Abéché market, the price of sheep is stable, with the figure around XAF 23,000 in January 2019 (+2 percent compared with the five-year average).

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2019 is based on the following assumptions at the national level:

  • Outlook for off-season harvests: A general increase in berbéré harvests is expected thanks to good rainfall in 2018 and an increase in cultivated areas.
  • Household cereal stocks: Stocks will last at the national level until harvesting begins and the lean season will occur as normal. However, stock levels may be below average in Moyen-Chari, Mandoul and the two Logone regions, but should cover household food needs until the start of the lean season in June 2019. In Kanem and Bahr el-Ghazal, stock levels will be slightly better than normal. However, food stocks may be at their lowest level in Tibesti due to the conflict, which is limiting supplies.
  • Institutional stocks: According to ONASA, stocks may be below the national level compared with a normal year. Despite good harvests this year, which may encourage ONASA to set aside emergency stocks (usually between 20,000 and 25,000 tons), purchases are not expected to exceed 10,000 tons due to funding difficulties. These ongoing purchases are expected to reach 4,000 tons, which is almost 20 percent of the usual total. Donations of 6,000 tons of rice to ONASA from China will strengthen these stocks.
  • Pastoral conditions and water availability: Pastoral resources should be available to cover animal needs until the next rainy season (June/July). The pastoral lean season should take place as normal, along with livestock movements from the south to the north. In Lac, herds may largely remain in the south of the region, causing overgrazing. In Tibesti, access to pasture may be limited due to insecurity, which could affect the physical condition of animals during the scenario period.
  • Agricultural labor: The labor supply will continue as normal until the end of May 2019. Between February and March, there may be a slight increase in demand in Salamat, Ouaddaï, Sila and Mayo-Kebbi Est due to the increase in berbéré areas (10–15 percent, according to ANADER). Contrastingly, there may be a significant decrease in Mayo-Kebbi Ouest due to the decrease in berbéré areas (-30 percent, according to ANADER). Between June and September, labor supply and demand should be normal.
  • Cereal markets and prices:
    • Cereal supply: Overall, supply should be above average thanks to the good harvests of 2018/2019. However, due to a production shortfall, supplies may be average or slightly lower than average in the Sudanian region. In Tibesti, cereal supplies may be lower because of the conflict.
    • Cereal demand: Demand should be normal in the Sahel region. In Lac, demand may increase, due to a lack of stock among displaced persons. In Tibesti, demand will be more constant because households do not produce food and rely on the market throughout the year.
    • Cereal flows: There will be atypical flows from the Sahel region to the Sudanian region, though flows will continue as normal in the opposite direction. Conflict will continue to disrupt cereal flows to the Lac region and Tibesti.
    • Staple food prices: In general, food prices, which are currently declining, may follow the same trend from February to May in most markets in areas with surplus stock. However, there may be a seasonal increase in Kanem and Bahr el-Ghazal, though prices will remain around the average. In deficit areas in the south, low market availability and ongoing institutional purchases could increase cereal prices. However, this trend will remain below average until May, before increasing as normal until September. In Tibesti, there will be an atypical increase in food prices from February to September 2019.
    • Millet prices: These will remain below the five-year average in the Sahel region thanks to a 16.5 percent increase in production in 2018 (source: FEWS NET data). Contrastingly, prices will be above the five-year average in Mandoul and Mayo-Kebbi Ouest due to poor harvests (decreases of 15 percent and 68 percent, respectively; source: FEWS NET data).
    • Sorghum prices: These will remain below the five-year average throughout the projection period because of the good sorghum harvest in 2018 (13 percent increase on the five-year average) and the good availability of alternative products (berbéré).
    • Maize prices: These will have a slight seasonal increase from February to June, but will remain below average throughout the projection period.
    • Sesame prices: Despite good harvests, prices will rise slightly due to strong external demand (Turkey, China, Sudan, India, etc.) and the earlier-than-usual decline of stocks on the market.
  • Livestock markets and prices:
    • The demand for livestock will remain below average.
    • The price of sheep and cattle will remain below average throughout the projection period, but is expected to increase slightly in May and June (Ramadan) and August (Tabaski festival). However, the terms of trade will remain unfavorable for livestock farmers in most markets.
  • Nutrition: Admissions to health centers will increase at the start of the lean season from April onwards. This trend will continue during the lean season due to the prevalence of acute respiratory infections and seasonal difficulties in accessing water.

Most likely food security outcomes

From February to May, households in Tibesti will have limited access to food, due to their deteriorating income and rising prices as a result of conflicts. Gold mining will not generate significant income and will have a limited impact. These households will have food consumption deficits and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In Lac, displaced persons and refugees will receive food assistance until the end of April. The rest of their consumption will come from meal sharing among host populations and market purchases. This will lead to minimally adequate consumption and non-food expenditure will be limited, resulting in a Stressed situation (IPC Phase 2). The rest of the country will remain in acute Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

Between June and September, households in Tibesti will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to consumption deficits.

From May, displaced persons and refugees in Lac will adopt coping strategies, such as reducing the number of meals, credit purchases and begging, due to a lack of humanitarian assistance, placing them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Poor households in Bahr el-Ghazal, Kanem, both Logone regions, Tandjilé, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari will rely on markets once their stocks have been depleted. Despite increased credit purchases and non-agricultural labor, income will not cover certain non-food items (school enrolment, health expenditure, etc.). These households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

The situation for other regions will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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