Key Message Update

Low rainfall forecasts for the basic grain Postrera campaign

July 2018

July - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • At the beginning of the Primera agricultural cycle, it was estimated that the crop production in the region would be similar to last year, however, since the beginning of July there have been prolonged periods without rain in certain areas, mainly in the dry corridor of Honduras and El Salvador, damaging crops in their flowering period. 

  • The perspective of the LVI Climate Forum in Central America forecasts below-normal rainfall between August and October in the region's subsistence agriculture production zones. Faced with this perspective, the forecasts of plantings and the vegetative development of the basic grains of the Postrera campaign are reserved.

  • The increase in oil prices, the seasonal depletion of crop stocks and price speculation due to the sociopolitical crisis in Nicaragua have led to an increase in the price of corn and beans; In Nicaragua, the greatest variations are recorded due to the high Postrera production costs of 2017 and recently the sociopolitical conflict that began in April.

  • The composite indicator price of coffee monthly average of the OIC of June 2018 was 110.44 US¢/Lb., the lowest since December 2013. If this trend continues it could have a negative impact on regional coffee production for the next harvest season (October-March), causing a reduction in wages and employment in the most vulnerable populations that depend on this livelihood.

  • Most households and all areas of the three countries are in the Minimum phase (IPC Phase 1). However, a small number of poor households engaged in subsistence farming who are recurrently affected by droughts for their basic grain production and who are unemployed are in Stress (IPC Phase 2), between July and September.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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