Lebanon

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Lebanon
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Latest Analysis
Key Message Update December 2025 Winter lean season begins as conflict compounds food security pressures Download the report
  • December typically marks the start of the winter lean season, when household food access is constrained due to seasonally elevated prices and heavy reliance on markets as stocks of own-produced food deplete. This year, seasonal price increases are exacerbated by constrained domestic food production linked to continued water shortages and conflict in southern areas, sustaining reliance on imports amid unfavorable exchange rates and high transportation costs. Non-food expenditures are also increasing, primarily driven by high heating costs amid falling winter temperatures, further straining household budgets.
  • Tensions surrounding the December 31 deadline for Hezbollah’s disarmament are sustaining an elevated risk of conflict escalation, with late December and early January identified as a key period of concern. While mediation efforts are ongoing, disagreements over the pace and scope of disarmament increase the risk of renewed fighting, particularly in southern Lebanon, El-Nabatieh, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Even short-term escalations would likely trigger temporary displacement, restrict movement, and disrupt market access during peak winter demand, increasing transportation costs and trader uncertainty, and sustaining elevated food prices. Insecurity and delayed agricultural activities would further reduce daily labor opportunities, constraining food access and slowing recovery for households already facing weakened purchasing power, especially in southern and eastern areas.
  • The ongoing drought across Lebanon – particularly in the north and east – has seen only marginal relief, with limited rainfall recorded during the first two weeks of December in Akkar, Bekaa, and Baalbek–El-Hermel. While additional rainfall is forecast for late December and early January, amounts are unlikely to meaningfully improve the seasonal outlook, as cumulative winter precipitation is expected to remain well below average through January. As a result, soil moisture deficits are likely to persist through January, and groundwater and reservoir levels are unlikely to recover without a sustained improvement in rainfall.
  • Winter planting continues in some parts of the Bekaa Valley and Akkar Plain (cereals, legumes, and the second potato cycle), despite below-average rainfall and an unfavorable seasonal outlook. Farmers engaged in winter planting are primarily small- to medium-scale producers with mixed land tenure (owner-operated and rented or sharecropped land), and are largely market-oriented, selling most of their production to meet cash needs rather than for own consumption. However, winter planting is atypically low to date due to the below-average rainfall, in addition to limited irrigation availability and high input costs. The delay in planting is expected to delay harvests (to June-July, rather than May-June), assuming rainfall conditions improve slightly as forecasted and remain adequate throughout the remainder of the season.
  • Wage labor income remains seasonally constrained in December, with limited farm labor opportunities. While some on-farm wage labor for winter planting remains available in Bekaa and Akkar, partly mechanized land preparation limits near-term labor demand. Additionally, delayed or reduced planting is expected to constrain future agricultural labor opportunities and income during the potato and legume harvest later in the year. Non-farm labor opportunities, including construction, are even more limited. The holiday season typically boosts tourism-related income-generating activities temporarily; however, this uptick is insufficient to offset the broader winter downturn in earnings. As a result, many poor households continue to depend on irregular, low-paying work through February. In addition, many households are increasingly employing unsustainable coping strategies such as relying on credit, remittances, and family support, as well as reducing food quantity and dietary diversity, to manage expenditures and meet minimum food needs.
  • Between November 2025 and March 2026, humanitarian food assistance in Lebanon is expected to reach approximately 1.5 million people each month, though budgetary constraints persist, contributing to gaps in coverage and transfer values. For example, in late 2025, WFP and its partners supported 200,000 households through monthly food or cash assistance, though coverage is expected to fluctuate and partially scale down in early 2026 due to funding constraints. In parallel, the Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) is expected to provide monthly cash transfers to up to 850,000 Lebanese individuals by March 2026, contingent on continued financing and recertification. Additionally, 520,000 Syrian refugees are expected to receive regular monthly food assistance, though ration values and caseloads will likely be adjusted. Given ongoing conflict impacts, below-average rainfall and harvests, weak labor income, and high essential costs, humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to remain high through at least mid-2026. 
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