Special Report

Potential impacts of 2012/2013 El Nino event

August 2012

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • National Security Stocks held by most West Africa governments were depleted over the 2011/12 consumption and marketing year. To date, SSNs in most countries are less than 50 percent replenished due to inadequate financing and poor SSN management. These stock levels are very atypical for this late in the marketing year.

  • The impacts of an El Niño event vary by region and time of year. In East Africa, El Niño events in this period typically lead to wetter-than-normal conditions for the October to December rains in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region, including southern Somalia, south and southeastern parts of Ethiopia, and northeastern parts of Kenya. In West Africa, El Niño does not typically have significant impacts on the rainy season and agricultural prospects. In southern Africa, El Niño conditions increase the probability of dry spells in areas prone to dryness. In Central America, El Niño events have historically led to below-average rainfall in the Caribbean areas and along the Central and Pacific basins.

  • The progress of the 2012/13 El Niño, including the degree of SST rise in the equatorial Pacific, the geographic extent of the SST rise, and unseasonal rainfall, should be closely monitored to determine potential impacts on food security. 

     

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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