Price Watch

July 2018 Global Price Watch

July 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In West Africa, the 2017/18 marketing year is nearing its end, the lean season is characterized by low supplies and stocks while demand is at high levels. Prices remained stable compared to the previous one to two months, especially in the Sahel. However, they are above average and will remain so throughout the lean season. Markets remain disrupted in the Greater Lake Chad basin and northern and central Mali due to insecurity. Important livestock losses were reported in Senegal’s pastoral zones in June.

  • In East Africa, markets remain severely affected by insecurity and significant macro-economic challenges in Yemen, South Sudan, and Sudan disrupting market supplies and putting persistent upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices declined across most markets in Somalia, Uganda, and Tanzania because of ongoing May-to-August harvests, while increased seasonably in most markets in Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia as supplies tightened with the of the lean season. 

  • In Southern Africa, maize supply increased seasonally as the main 2018/19 harvest progressed across most of the region. Maize prices were stable or declined in key reference markets and generally below their respective 2017 and five-year average levels. Maize grain can circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices remain competitive in South Africa, encouraging exports to international markets.

  • In Central America, maize availability continued to decrease seasonally, while bean supplies were supported by the recent Apante harvests. Maize prices increased between May and June while dry bean price trends varied. Maize prices remain above their 2017 and average levels, a phenomenon believed to be linked to increases in global fertilizer and fuel prices since late 2017 putting upward pressure on production and marketing costs. In Haiti, local maize and black bean prices were stable or decreasing in key reference markets as the printemps harvest progressed under generally favorable conditions. Imported rice prices were firm or increasing, and the Haitian gourde depreciated further against the USD.

  • Central Asia sustained adequate supplies and intraregional trade is expected to fill local wheat deficits within the region. Kazakhstan and Pakistan are expected to have above-average upcoming wheat harvests while Afghanistan is expected to have below-average wheat production. Wheat prices remained stable and below-average in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest exporter.

  • International staple food markets remain well supplied. Soybean prices were firm while rice, maize and wheat prices decreased. Crude oil prices fell, and global fertilizer prices increased.

About Price Watch

Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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