FEWS NET El Niño and La Niña Monitoring Resources
2015/16 El Niño
The strong El Niño of 2015/16 is forecast to continue three to six months into 2016. An El Niño is a set of anomalous oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific that influences weather patterns around the world. So far, this El Niño has led to drier than average conditions in Central America and the Caribbean, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It has resulted in more rainfall than usual during the October to December season in the Horn of Africa. It has also disrupted the Indian monsoon and led to drier than usual conditions in Southeast Asia and Indonesia. During late 2015 and early 2016 it is likely to contribute to drought in Southern Africa. In the last El Niño of comparable magnitude – 1997-1998 – a rapid transition to La Niña conditions occurred. Some observers speculate that this may happen again. This would be unfavorable for the Horn of Africa because La Niña is quite consistently associated with drought in the eastern Horn.
From October 2015 to September 2016, FEWS NET projects that emergency food assistance in the countries FEWS NET covers will be roughly 30 percent higher than our estimate for last year. In about half of the countries we cover, El Niño’s impacts on climates are a primary driver of acute food insecurity. This El Niño and the needs it is creating are above and beyond a variety of other serious food security emergencies that were already occurring – including Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center El Niño Monitoring
El Niño Impacts To-Date in FEWS monitored countries
Click on a region to view updates
El Niño Reporting
Global | July 8, 2016
Global | July, 2015
Southern Africa | March 18, 2016
East Africa | February 29, 2016
Southern Africa | February 12, 2016
Global | February 8, 2016
Southern Africa | January 22, 2016
Ethiopia | December 17, 2015
Southern Africa | December, 2015
Ethiopia | December 4, 2015
Southern Africa | November, 2015
Global | March, 2015
About FEWS NET
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.