Informe de mercados regionales

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

Diciembre 2017

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Concentración de personas desplazadas – coloque el puntero sobre el mapa para ver la clasificación de los campos en Nigeria.
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisis que es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero no necesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
WFP
CILSS

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report.

Mensajes clave

  • For the fourth consecutive year, aggregate regional cereal production (milled rice, maize, and millet/sorghum) is projected to increase during the 2017/18 marketing year (MY). This trend is supported by favorable agro-climatic conditions, increased area planted, improved seeds, and agricultural programs and policies. Above average regional production will contribute to filling local deficits. Rice and maize production have expanded, while millet and sorghum production have stagnated.

  • West Africa is expected to have a gross marketable surplus of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) of cereals. The region remains structurally-deficit with respect to rice, despite growth in rice production and decreasing regional rice imports. Rice and wheat Imports will persist from well-supplied international markets. 

  • During the second half of MY 2016/17, staple food prices unexpectedly increased across much of the central basin. This was driven by localized deficits and early depletion of stocks due to atypically high demand from Niger (normally be filled by Nigeria). At the beginning of MY 2017/18, staple food prices remain above the recent five-year average. The depreciation of local currencies across the region’s coastal countries and resulting impacts on the cost of imports also contribute to higher prices. Staple food prices will be above average in most countries throughout MY 2017/18, except in Chad. Nigeria’s macroeconomic situation has slowly improved, but prices remain elevated and inflation remains high.

  • Pastoral conditions are characterized by below average forage and water availability in the major livestock producing countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad). The pastoral lean season is expected to begin early. High projected cereal prices will contribute to relatively low livestock to cereal terms of trade (ToT).

  • Cereal harvests in the Greater Lake Chad basin are expected to be below average, with major deficits anticipated in the typically surplus-producing Far North Region of Cameroon. Several markets remain closed or function at reduced levels across the basin. Prices are expected to be elevated. Many households will remain in need of humanitarian assistance through the 2017/18 lean season. 

  • Regional institutional procurement is expected to take place at normal levels across the region, except in Niger where the planned institutional purchase quantities will be above average. Local and regional procurement may be feasible, primarily in the Central Basin, but could drive projected prices higher.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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