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Continued adequate moisture conditions raise hopes for average to above-average harvest

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • West Africa
  • Septiembre 23, 2016
Continued adequate moisture conditions raise hopes for average to above-average harvest

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  • Mensajes Clave
  • Update on Seasonal Progress
  • Forecasts
  • Partner
    USGS
    Mensajes Clave
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) started its southward retreat in early September but it remains either at or north of its average position, which could mean a normal to longer growing period.

    • From early July until mid-September, mostly average to above-average rainfall that has been well-distributed over time has fallen throughout most of the region (Figures 1 and 2), which is ensuring good growing conditions.

    • Seasonal rainfall deficits (Figure 2) are minimal and limited to the extreme western part of the Sahel, the middle of Niger and the southern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries; these deficits are not expected to adversely affect crop development.

    • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks (Sept 23-29 and Sept 30-Oct 6) calls for a drier agro-pastoral zone, likely signaling a normal end of the rainy season, and for moderate to heavy rains over the rest of the region where agricultural conditions will remain favorable. 

    • Heavy rainfall over the past two months has caused flooding in some areas along the Niger, Benue and Senegal River basins. Based on the past two weeks’ rainfall amount and frequency as well as the next two-week forecast, the risk of flooding remains high in Senegal and Nigeria.


    Update on Seasonal Progress
    • The Intertropical Front (ITF) reached its northernmost position at the end of August and started its southward retreat in early September. However, the retreat has been slower than average, leaving the ITF north of its climatological position over eastern Mauritania, Mali and Niger and at its climatological position in western Mauritania and over Chad (Figure 3).
    • The seasonal “minor dry season” in the bi-modal zone finished as usual in late August and early September.
    • Seasonal rainfall (April-September) has been average to above average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2).  Rainfall deficits are light and limited to a few areas scattered across the region including western Senegal, central Niger, and the southern part of the Gulf of Guinea countries.  These deficits, however, are not expected to have an adverse impact on crop and pasture production because:
      • the rainfall distribution over time was favorable without any long dry spells
      • most of the previously mentioned deficit areas were wetter than average during previous month
    • In some places, the heavy rainfall during August resulted in flooding in low lying areas and along major rivers.  Light to moderate flooding has been reported in Mali and Niger along the Niger River and in Nigeria along the Benue and Niger Rivers.  Flooding has also been reported in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Senegal over low lying areas with often poor drainage systems.
    • While rainfall subsided over most of the Niger River basin during the past two weeks, the Senegal and Benue basins have received heavy and frequent rains.  Since the next two week forecast also calls for heavy rains over a large portion of these two basins, the risk of flooding remains high.
    • The mostly adequate and well-distributed seasonal rainfall across all agro-ecological zones is favorable to crop development, and an average to above-average harvest is expected as a result.

    Forecasts
    • NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains in the region with the exception of the agro-pastoral zone where drier conditions are expected.  Rainfall is also expected to be below average in southern Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal for the next two weeks (Sept 23-29 and Sept 30-Oct 6).
    • In next month, which officially marks the end of the growing period in West Africa, the NOAA-NCEP seasonal forecast calls for average rainfall across the whole region.
    Figures Figure 1:  Total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm, 1st dekad of April-2nd dekad of September

    Figura 1

    Figure 1: Total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm, 1st dekad of April-2nd dekad of September

    Fuente: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 2: Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2006-2015 mean, 1stdekad of April-2nddekad of September

    Figura 2

    Figure 2: Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2006-2015 mean, 1stdekad of April-2nddekad of September

    Fuente: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 3: Intertropical Front (ITF) position compared to climatological average in 2nd dekad of September

    Figura 3

    Figure 3: Intertropical Front (ITF) position compared to climatological average in 2nd dekad of September

    Fuente: USGS/FEWS NET

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figura 4

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Fuente: FEWS NET

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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