Perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity persists in Tibesti

De Junio 2019 hasta Enero 2020

Junio - Septiembre 2019

Le Tibesti est en Phase 3, alors que le Lac et une partie du sud en phase 2.

Octubre 2019 - Enero 2020

Le Tibesti est en Phase 3, alors que le Lac en phase 2.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • The food situation is relatively calm, except in conflict areas. In Tibesti, insecurity continues to prevail, leading to a deterioration in livelihoods and a consumption deficit that now affects households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In Lac, internally displaced persons receive food assistance and have minimal food consumption. The income that they generate does not cover certain expenses. They are therefore experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. 

  • Poor households’ cereal stocks are almost exhausted in some parts of the south, including the two Logone regions, Tandjilé, Moyen-Chari and Mandoul. These households maintain food access through subsidized sales but have difficulties covering non-food expenses and have therefore been experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity since early June.

  • In the Sahel-Saharan area, markets are well supplied with food and stock levels are slightly higher than average, with the exception of the markets near Lake Chad and in Tibesti, which are constantly disrupted by insecurity and incursions by Boko Haram. In the Sudanian area, traders’ stocks are supported by those of the National Food Security Agency (ONASA) intended for sale at affordable prices.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current situation

The agricultural situation: The rainy season is well under way in the south of the country. Seedlings are emerging early, at 10 to 20 days, in most of the south. On the other hand, delays of around 30 days have been reported in the far south, in Mandoul and Moyen-Chari. In the Sahelian area, labor demand is normal during this land-clearing period. Demand has arisen early in the Sudanian region, thanks to the rains recorded in April/May and the early seedlings, which have brought forward the weeding work. The trend in the cost of agricultural labor during the growing-season preparation period varies between 1,500 and 1,750 XAF per person per day, which is down from 2,000 XAF in past years.

The pastoral situation: Pasture is abundant and diverse, thanks to residues from the berberé (off-season sorghum) crop harvest. Some livestock farmers supplement their livestock’s feed with groundnuts. The physical condition of the animals is generally above average. However, there have been reports of an epidemic in the west, where between 200 and 300 deaths have been reported by the Directorate of Veterinary Services, mainly of donkeys and horses. Transmission is fast and can lead to significant losses for both herds, which are used to draw carts and as transportation in the Sahelian area.

Demand for cereal products: Demand slightly increases during the month of Ramadan, when food consumption is greater.

Food flows and prices: Food markets are generally well supplied thanks to higher than average merchant stocks. In conflict areas, however, flows are lower than usual. Millet and sorghum prices in May experienced a moderate decrease compared to the average, owing to good availability. The price of maize was stable in May because of the harvests that had just been completed in the Lac region. There were also price decreases among certain other products, including pasta, oil and sugar, encouraged by Government measures to abolish customs duties, and relating to the value added tax (VAT) applied to basic necessities. Thus, a 50 kg bag of sugar on the N’Djamena market is currently selling at 27,000 XAF instead of 33,000 XAF. A 25 kg bag is selling at 13,500 XAF instead of 17,500 XAF.

Livestock prices: In Nokou (Nord Kanem) and Bokoro (Hadjer-Lamis), sheep prices in May were slightly higher than in the same period in 2018, at the same level since the beginning of the year, because of the high consumption of meat during the month of Ramadan. However, prices remain slightly lower (around 10 percent) than the five-year average. Goat prices are falling (-15 percent) compared to the five-year average.

The current food security situation: In the Sahel-Saharan area, the current situation is relatively calm, with the exception of Tibesti, where food security conditions have deteriorated due to minimal stock levels, low incomes for accessing food and very limited strategies for addressing current consumption shortfalls. This area remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The food consumption of internally displaced persons and refugees from the Lac region is minimal and depends on humanitarian assistance. In the southern regions, households’ residual stocks have been depleted since the end of May, and their access to cereals depends on ONASA’s reduced prices, available in some regions including Mandoul, Moyen-Chari and Logone Occidental. As a result, internally displaced persons and refugees from the Lac region, as well as the aforementioned Sudanian regions, are currently experiencing Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). The rest of the country is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity as a result of good cereal production in the 2018/2019 growing season. 

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for June 2019 to January 2020 is based on the following assumptions at the national level:

  • Climate forecasts for the 2019–2020 growing season: According to the seasonal forecasts of the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel/Economic Community of West African States (CILSS/ECOWAS) countries for 2019, southern Chad is expected to see an overall amount of rain equivalent or greater than the average totals for the 1981–2010 period. However, normal or below-average rainfall is expected in the vicinity of Lake Chad and throughout the rest of the country. Early to normal season start dates are expected, but late to normal end dates may be observed in the Sahelian and Sudanian areas. Once the season has begun, dry periods longer than those usually observed in the reference period (1981–2010) are expected. However, during the second half of the season, dry periods may be shorter in central and western parts of Chad (see Figure 1).
  • Harvesting outlook 2019–2020: Harvests should be around average. These harvests should contribute to a good level of household cereal stocks and food diversification between October 2019 and at least January 2020.
  • Agricultural labor outlook: The supply of agricultural labor for sowing activities between June and July and for weeding between July and August should be normal, but demand may increase slightly, thanks to the extension of areas planned by the National Agency for Rural Development Support (ANADER).
  • Pastoral resources and livestock movement outlook: The resources currently available could cover animal needs until July, when the grass regenerates. However, the pastoral lean season and livestock movements from the south to the north should take place as normal. Animals body conditions are likely to be average. Given the insecurity to the north of Lac, animals are expected to remain concentrated in the south. In Tibesti, ongoing insecurity continues to limit access to pasture. This could affect the physical condition of animals throughout the scenario period.
  • Household cereal stocks: Stocks could generally be held until the next October harvest at the national level. However, they are likely be depleted early (from the beginning of June to the end of July) in Moyen-Chari, Mandoul, Tandjilé and the two Logone regions due to the low rain-fed harvests of 2018. However, households will depend on purchases for a short time (June–July) thanks to the early crops that will be available in August.
  • Food prices: In general, food prices are currently decreasing and are likely to remain below the five-year average throughout the scenario in most markets, thanks to good stock levels. However, an unusual increase may be observed in Tibesti between June 2019 and January 2020 due to a low supply of processed products (rice, pasta, wheat flour, etc.).
  • Evolution of GAM prevalence during the scenario period: The prevalence of malnutrition on admission may increase during the lean season, owing to seasonal difficulties in accessing water and deteriorating hygiene conditions. However, they are likely to remain within average values (12.6–14.5) in the absence of an epidemic.

Most likely food security outcomes

For June to September 2019: Given the decline in household incomes in Tibesti throughout the analysis period, the possible compromising of market gardening production owing to the lack of access to oases and the low supply in major markets (Zouar and Bardai) leading to higher prices, food insecurity is likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Internally displaced persons in the Lac region and poor households in Kanem, Bahr El Ghazal, Mandoul, Logone Oriental, Logone Occidental, Moyen-Chari and Tandjilé are likely to have reduced and barely suitable food consumption. They are unlikely to be able to afford certain non-food expenses without engaging in irreversible coping strategies. They may therefore experience Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2). There is likely to be Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) throughout the rest of the country.

For October 2019 to January 2020: In Tibesti, the situation is likely to remain stable, in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) until January 2020 due to the persistent civil insecurity, which restricts food consumption and sources of income. In Lac, continued assistance planned by humanitarian actors will facilitate food access for displaced households. This assistance will keep them in stable Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2!). The food insecurity situation of households in part of the Sudanian area (Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari), Kanem and Bahr El Ghazal is improving, from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Minimal (IPC Phase 1), due to harvesting and agricultural labor. Refugees in Moyen-Chari and Mandoul are likely to experience Minimal food insecurity, thanks to humanitarian assistance. The rest of the country will experience Minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), thanks to the expected good harvest.

Area

Event

Impact on food security conditions

National

Late arrival of the rainy season and/or lengthy dry periods

Below-average agricultural output

 

National

Crop pests

Poor yields

Sobre El Desarrollo De Escenarios

Para proyectar los resultados de seguridad alimentaria en un período de seis meses, FEWS NET desarrolla una serie de supuestos sobre eventos probables, sus efectos, y las posibles respuestas de varios actores. FEWS NET analiza estos supuestos en el contexto de las condiciones actuales y los medios de vida locales para desarrollar escenarios estimando los productos de seguridad alimentaria. Típicamente, FEWS NET reporta el escenario más probable. Para conocer más, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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