Informe de monitoreo remoto

For the third consecutive season conflict will negatively affect agricultural production in the North-West and South-West

Junio 2019

Junio - Septiembre 2019

Résultats de la sécurité alimentaire estimés en Juin-septembre 2019

Octubre 2019 - Enero 2020

Résultats de la sécurité alimentaire estimés en octobre 2019-janvier 2020

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Livelihoods continue to deteriorate as conflict continues in the South-West and North-West regions. The conflict also limits access to fields and labor opportunities and together with high food prices, has led to further deterioration in household purchasing power. As a result, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and poor households are most likely to continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2020.

  • In the Far North region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is expected to persist for IDPs and poor host households through January 2020 owing to the gradual depletion of stocks between June and August and continued looting and destruction of property by Boko Haram. The conflict is adversely affecting livelihoods in areas of Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga departments.

  • In the Far North region, the increase number of IDPs returns, partner support and good rainfall prospects will most likely lead to favorable yields. In the North-West and South-West regions, on the other hand, food and export production are expected to be below average owing to producers’ limited access to fields, rising input and labor costs and series of stoppages that halt work on plantations.

ZONE

CURRENT ANOMALIES

PROJECTED ANOMALIES

National

  • Overall, almost 792,000 IDPs in the Far North, North-West and South-West regions, and 379,000 Nigerian (in the Extrême-Nord region)  and Central African refugees (in the Est, Nord and Adamaoua regions), according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, April 2019.
  • Despite security efforts, Boko Haram will most likely continue to threaten and limit the mass return of IDPs and refugees. Moreover, the security situation in the North-West and South-West regions will continue to be cause for concern as fighting continues.
Far-North
  • Above-average food supply at local markets and cereal prices down by around 23 percent for sorghum and 17 percent for maize compared to the five-year average.
  • Persistent incursions by Boko Haram resulting in localized losses of household property.
  • Return of IDPs motivated mainly by agricultural activities and improved security in their villages of origin.
  • Changes in basic cereal prices following the seasonal trend, with levels below the five-year average thanks to typical household demand and good market availability.
North-West and South-West
  • Violence affecting both the IDPs who are sometimes tempted to return to their villages of origin deemed safer (237,000 returnees according to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)) and the population as a whole, with new cases of IDPs.
  • Household access to agriculture fields are limited because of roadblocks and threats. This, together with the illegal taxes imposed by armed groups, limits supplies to urban centers and hinders assistance.
  • Displacement and limited access to fields will negatively affect agricultural activities and lead to a decline in food production.
  • Sustained deterioration in household access to food, particularly in urban centers, as a result of high prices, and also in livelihoods because of falling incomes and job losses on farms and in the agro-food industry.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2020

Far-North Region

The security situation is improving, but incursions by Boko Haram, particularly in the departments of Mayo-Tsanaga, Mayo-Sava, and Logone-et-Chari continue. At the beginning of the lean season, household market demand is typical since most households still have food stocks from the previous season and are not heavily dependent on markets for food. Basic food prices are lower than last year’s prices and the five-year average. From 2017 to 2019 as the security situation improved, there were around the region recorded around 74,000 returnees and 54.000 newly displaced persons.

Livestock exports to Nigeria from the Logone-et-Chari and Mayo-Tsanaga departments resumed, but remain limited. The recent reopening of the Amchide-Mora corridor is likely to stimulate trade with Nigeria, the main export market for livestock, onions and smoked fish. Unlike last year, when farmers were forced to sell their animals, this year they sell them at prices 15 to 20 percent higher. Reports of cases of Gourme, an equine epidemic in west African Sahel countries, in the region have forced livestock services to adopt measures to contain the disease by banning equine animals from entering livestock markets.

Monsoon activity increased in the second half of May, bringing rains favorable to seedlings, except in the department of Logone-et-Chari. Total rainfall in mid-June is above average, contributing to good emergence of sorghum. As poor household food stocks starts to depleted, market dependency will typically increase through August. Livelihoods remain constrained as a result of Boko Haram’s looting and destruction of granaries in several locations in the departments of Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga. Even with the new harvests starting in September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely in IDPs and poor host households until January in these departments.

North-West and South-West Regions

Conflict continues in the North-West and South-West region with further killings, forced displacement of civilians and security incidents involving kidnapping; roadblocks; the destruction of markets in Oshie, Tad, Njikwa, Nkun and Bamenda; and houses and food stores being set on fire. Separatists’ imposition of dead days, curfews and other administrative measures has had a negative impact urban market supply and reduced flows between Douala and Nigeria.

Overall, basic food prices in urban markets are higher than last year’s prices by 25 percent higher for imported rice, around 33 percent higher for maize and beans, 10 percent higher for palm oil, and 17 percent higher for potatoes. On the other hand, producers in rural areas have difficulty accessing markets to sell their products, which has led to a fall in prices in rural markets due to the above-average supply. For example, in the local markets of Ndop, Wum, Fundong, Kumbo and Nkambe, maize prices fell by 13 to 22 percent compared to last year. Insecurity also affects the food and export sectors. The decrease supply of quality cocoa and coffee decreased, resulting in lower prices in these products. In addition to the negative impact of the fall in global prices, the producer price per kilogram of coffee has fallen by around 12 percent, and of cocoa by 11 to 27 percent compared to the official prices. To overcome slow, difficult processing, some rice producers sell paddy rice to traders in the West region who process it and resell it in the North-West and South-West regions. Similarly, in accessible areas, palm seeds are sent to Douala for processing.

The rainy season started in April and enabled the successful planting of crops including beans, potatoes, maize and yams. Wherever possible, IDPs returned to their villages of origin to engage in agricultural activities. Despite this, upcoming harvests are expected to be smaller than pre-crisis harvests. As a result of conflict, some large holdings have not been cultivated or maintained. Furthermore, there is little local labor supply for clearing and weeding operations.

In calmer rural areas, access to new products and lower basic food prices are helping non-displaced households access food. The maize harvest in July and August is most likely increase the food supply in these regions. However, declining incomes have a negative impacted livelihoods. In urban areas, poor households are increasing their consumption of less preferred foods, such as legumes (groundnuts, soya) and vegetables (cabbage, okra, bitter leaves (ndoleh)) to substitute animal products (meat, fish, milk and eggs). Locally produced palm oil is replacing industrial oil. As a result, IDPs and poor host households in inaccessible areas and disadvantaged urban households will face acute Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the scenario period due to the continued decline in purchasing power, persistently high prices with inadequate market supply, and reduced access to fields.

Acerca Del Monitoreo Remoto

Para el monitoreo remoto, típicamente un(a) coordinador(a) trabaja a través de la oficina regional más cercana. Con apoyo de datos de los socios, el(a) coordinador(a) utiliza el desarrollo de escenarios para llevar a cabo el análisis y producir los reportes mensuales. Es posible que los países de monitoreo remoto cuenten con menor información disponible y como consecuencia, los reportes tengan menos detalle que los países con presencia de FEWS NET. Para conocer más sobre nuestro trabajo, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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