Informe de monitoreo remoto

Food Security outcomes are likely to deteriorate earlier than usual due to below-average harvest

De Junio 2019 hasta Enero 2020

Junio - Septiembre 2019

Projected food security outcomes for June - September 2018

Octubre 2019 - Enero 2020

Lesotho January 2017 Food Security Projections for February to May

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Most of Lesotho is experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes, supported by limited 2019 harvests. However, this status is expected to be short lived and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely re-emerge by September.

  • Following a poor 2018/19 rainfall season, the below-average 2019 harvest is one of the main drivers of food insecurity in Lesotho this year. Unofficial estimates suggest that maize production is about 20­­­ to ­­40 percent below reference year levels and sorghum production, an important cereal crop, is less than last year and significantly below the five-year average.

  • Market staple food prices in Maseru are still favorable, however reports indicate a gradual increase. Price projections by FEWS NET (Figure 1) show that maize meal prices in Maseru will likely increase to above-average levels during the outlook period. They are expected to fluctuate between 4–12 percent above 5-year average between July 2019 and February 2020, driven by price increases in South African source markets. Market supplies should remain stable across Lesotho.

ZONE CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES
Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Qacha’s nek, Quthing
  • Below-average 2019 harvests
  • Below-average income from crop sales
  • Below-average opportunities for agricultural labor, affecting income and in-kind food access
  • Above-average staple food prices
  • Below-average off-farm income sources
  • Reduced purchasing power  

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2020

In most households, food consumption has improved with the harvest, despite a poor 2018/19 rainfall season and reports of sporadic crop failure across Lesotho during the peak growing season. Although official crop estimates are still to be released, unofficial statistics indicate that maize grain production is likely to be below last year’s levels and 20 to 40 percent below reference year levels. In addition, wheat and sorghum production are also well below average, at around 10 to 30 percent. Harvested crop stores will deplete earlier than normal and the number of months of consumption of own food will likely range from zero to about two months for the poorest households. Typically, poor households consume self-produced food through August/September before they start to rely on the market, but they are expected to revert to market purchases earlier than normal this year.

During the period June to October, households will rely on crop sales, harvesting labor, off-farm labor, livestock and livestock products selling, self-employment, and remittances to earn cash income. However, harvesting labor demand is significantly below average, in correlation with the poor harvest. In addition, income earned from crop sales will also be atypically low from June to September due to limited availability of harvested crops for sale. This will affect both poor and rich households.  Households may intensify livestock selling in the next 2 to 3 months as crop stores deplete. Livestock numbers for poorest households remain low due to protracted selling, which will limit further selling capacity. Remittances will continue to be one of the key income sources and coping strategies for many households and possibility of increased labor migration to South Africa, especially during the lean season, is high given the poor harvest experienced this year. Opportunities for employment activities such as beer brewing, construction, and domestic work will likely be below average as expendable income decreases, and employers prioritize food purchases for their household. From October 2019 to January 2020, households will have increased access to income from farm labor as the agriculture season will be starting. Opportunities for labor will likely be average due to anticipated average rainfall during start of 2019/2020 rainfall season. However, lack of income and grain to reinvest due to poor 2018 harvest remains a concern.

Livestock body conditions have improved due to availability of pasture and water and this will help strengthen livestock prices through August. However, body conditions will likely begin to deteriorate after August as water availability decreases.  During this period, supply of livestock on the market is expected to increase as households sell livestock for income to purchase food and hence livestock prices will likely be unfavorable especially around November and December.

Maize meal prices are currently around the 5-year average. However, maize meal prices are projected to increase above average levels, fluctuating within 4–12 percent above the 5-year average between July 2019 and February 2020 (Figure 1). The projected increase is due to increased local demand driven by a poor 2019 harvest and increasing maize grain prices in the source markets of South Africa. The SAGIS weekly bulleting for last of May indicated that white maize grain prices in South Africa slightly increased between April and May. It also projects that white maize grain prices will likely increase by seven percent between June 2019 and March 2020. This increase is expected to cascade down to receiving markets in Lesotho. The combined effects of below average harvest, low incomes, and increasing maize meal prices are expected to increase food food insecurity to above last year levels. Therefore, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes will likely be experienced in Lesotho from September 2019 through January 2020.

Acerca Del Monitoreo Remoto

Para el monitoreo remoto, típicamente un(a) coordinador(a) trabaja a través de la oficina regional más cercana. Con apoyo de datos de los socios, el(a) coordinador(a) utiliza el desarrollo de escenarios para llevar a cabo el análisis y producir los reportes mensuales. Es posible que los países de monitoreo remoto cuenten con menor información disponible y como consecuencia, los reportes tengan menos detalle que los países con presencia de FEWS NET. Para conocer más sobre nuestro trabajo, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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