DRC Flag

País donde estamos presentes
Perspectiva de seguridad alimentaria

Conflicts continue to disrupt household livelihoods in affected areas

Octubre 2017

Octubre 2017 - Enero 2018

Febrero - Mayo 2018

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Sin mapa
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria. FEWS NET presenta el mapa para el este de la RDC solamente.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Sin mapa
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria. FEWS NET presenta el mapa para el este de la RDC solamente.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Sin mapa
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • The main growing season (Season A, with harvests extending from January through March) is gradually getting underway with the planting of major food crops across bimodal areas of the Northeastern, Southeastern, and Central-Eastern regions. It is off to a slow and, in some cases, tentative start in conflict areas of the Kasaï region and Tanganyika province, where there has been very little return migration by displaced households, who represent approximately 20 percent of the rural population in these areas.

  • According to NOAA forecasts, cumulative seasonal rainfall totals across the country will likely be average with the exception of the Southeast that may be below-average, particularly Haut-Katanga province. This will likely lead to normal crop performance, with generally good harvests at the end of this growing season.

  • The increased presence of government troops in the Kasaï region has led to approximately 106,000 IDPs (7.5 percent of the internally displaced population of the region) to return home in the last 18 months. This flow of return migration could come to a halt without timely assistance, which could trigger a cycle of continuous displacement.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current situation

The humanitarian situation in the DRC is a continuing source of concern. To date, the violence in the Kasaï region and Tanganyika and Sud-Kivu provinces has displaced more than 3.9 million people, with close to half this number in the Kasaï region alone. This crisis in the DRC is one of the world’s most dire long-term humanitarian crises, with at least 8.5 million people across the country in need of assistance and protection and nearly 2 million children at risk of severe acute malnutrition according to the UNOCHA. In addition, outbreaks of diseases such as cholera are affecting tens of thousands of people every year.

Close to half a million Congolese citizens have sought refuge in neighboring countries, including 33,000 people fleeing to Angola and, more recently, another 3,400 crossing from Tanganyika and Haut-Katanga provinces into Zambia since September 2017.

The situation has been even further exacerbated by the massive presence in the DRC of close to 564,000 refugees and asylum seekers from neighboring countries like Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic fleeing the political instability in these countries.

In spite of these mass population displacements, large numbers of refugees and DPs are reportedly returning to their villages, mainly in the Kasaï region, nearly all of which have been destroyed. The limited capacity of humanitarian organizations to assist these returnees is heightening the potential risk of new cycles of displacement and ethnic violence.

The 2016/2017 harvest was relatively smaller than usual with the displacement of 20 percent of the rural population. The latest IPC analysis in June 2017 showed 7.7 million people experiencing food insecurity in the DRC, of which 4.3 million were concentrated in the above-mentioned conflict areas, with growing rates of food insecurity.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for October 2017 through May 2018 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions:  

  • Rainfall: The NOAA is expecting average levels of rainfall for the 2017-2018 “A” growing season (Figure 2), which would enable households to engage in normal seasonal farming activities, except in certain parts of the Southeast (former Katanga province) where current forecasts are for below-average rainfall.
  • Early lean season: With the very poor, well-below-average harvests from previous growing seasons in the Central-Eastern part of the country (the Kasaï region and Tanganyika province), households will have depleted their food stocks by the beginning of the first half of the outlook period, with the lean season getting underway earlier than usual, or by August 2017.
  • Agricultural season A: With the fall armyworm « Spodoptera frugiperda » infestation of maize crops since the 2016-2017 “A” season and its extension into the 2017-2018 “A” growing season already reported in certain parts of Nord-Kivu, Katanga, etc., there will more than likely be further attacks by fall armyworms throughout the 2017-2018 “A” season which has just gotten underway without pest control efforts by local farmers as a result of the continuing nationwide awareness-raising campaign mounted by the country’s partners (the FAO  in particular).
  • Assistance for returnees: The failure to take steps to provide assistance to DPs returning to their home areas could trigger a cycle of continuous displacement and remobilization of youths seeking refuge with armed militia groups.
  • New population displacements: With the fragile politico-economic climate in the DRC, the failure to hold elections by the originally scheduled date could trigger demonstrations which, in turn, could potentially engender new population movements adding to the ranks of the country’s current displaced population of 3.8 million people.
  • Larger demand in Haut-Uélé province: The massive refugee presence from South Sudan would increase demand for the usual supply of food crops, which would distort food prices on markets in this part of the country.

Most likely food security outcomes

The entire southern part of the country will be in the midst of the lean season in the first half of the outlook period between October 2017 and January 2018, particularly the North-Central and Southeastern regions. Food security conditions in these areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in the Kasaï region and Tanganyika provinces, which will remain in a state of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) requiring humanitarian assistance to save lives and preserve local livelihoods.

The beginning of the harvest in the Northeastern and Central-Eastern regions in the second half of the outlook period, between February and May 2018, could bring relief to poor households, providing them with a supply of home-grown crops. On the other hand, the lean season in the Southeastern region will extend through April 2018, with a growing dependence on Zambia.

The lack of available food stocks will sharply reduce the flow of food supplies to the Kasaï region faced with an earlier than usual lean season from neighboring provinces and territories serving conflict-torn areas since the beginning of the crisis in August 2016. Poor households relying mainly on temporary on-farm and non-farm employment at this time of year will be dependent on market purchases for their food supplies, while their purchasing power is steadily eroded.  Without humanitarian assistance to this region, particularly food assistance, this part of Kasaï will remain in its current state of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for the entire outlook period in spite of the January harvest, which will be poorer than average. Thus, this region will remain in crisis. Certain households could start consuming green crops towards the end of January 2018. Households elsewhere in the country, particularly in the Northeast, will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity during the outlook period. 

Sobre El Desarrollo De Escenarios

Para proyectar los resultados de seguridad alimentaria en un período de seis meses, FEWS NET desarrolla una serie de supuestos sobre eventos probables, sus efectos, y las posibles respuestas de varios actores. FEWS NET analiza estos supuestos en el contexto de las condiciones actuales y los medios de vida locales para desarrollar escenarios estimando los productos de seguridad alimentaria. Típicamente, FEWS NET reporta el escenario más probable. Para conocer más, haga clic aqui.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

  • USAID Logo
  • USGS Logo
  • USDA Logo
  • NASA Logo
  • NOAA Logo
  • Kilometra Logo
  • Chemonics Logo