Monitor Estacional

Normal to above-normal rainfall could improve the spring harvest in Haiti

Diciembre 2013

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for the next three months in Haiti, likely improving soil moisture conditions for the subsequent spring season in 2014.

  • Good rainfall distribution during the Postrera season has been favorable for the development of staple grains crops in Central America.

  • The quantity and distribution of rainfall forecast for the Apante season is average for the main staple grain-producing areas; therefore, crop development is expected to be normal through the end of the harvest in February.

Seasonal Progress

Continuous rainfall deficits in Haiti over the past four months have affected crop yields in Gressier, Léogane, Jacmel, La Vallée, Grand-Goâve, Côtes de Fer, Bainet, and Cabaret (Figure 1). A seasonal decrease in rainfall will begin in December due to the start of the dry season over Haiti. Yet, for the following quarter (December to February), the forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall, with only occasional light precipitation (Figure 2).

In northern Nicaragua, particularly in the department of Estelí, the Postrera harvest of red beans will start at the beginning of December. Average yields of 16 to 18 quintals per hectare are expected in areas affected by a late start of the rainy season. In non-affected areas in the north of Nicaragua, 30 quintals per hectare will be harvested. According to MAGFOR, Postrera production is expected to provide 2 million quintals of red beans, representing an increase of almost 30 percent in both production and area planted compared to last year’s Postrera. However, the Apante season in February will be the most significant for harvesting beans, yielding approximately 160,000 hectares of beans (89,000 and 119,000 hectares were sown during Primera and Postrera, respectively). A reduction in the price of red beans is expected for the upcoming weeks in northern Nicaragua as the harvest is already underway.

In Honduras, the government expects an average production of white maize and red beans, mainly for national consumption. In 2014, the Secretary of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) will implement a change in cropping areas and dedicate some area planted to soy crops. The area designated will depend of the number of farmers that want participate. The Taiwanese government will offer funds to support this activity. The impetus for adding soy is to help farmers diversify crop production in order to provide alternative income sources that can enable households to buy food.

In Guatemala, good weather conditions have allowed staple grain agricultural activities to progress on schedule during the Postrera season, ending in mid-December. Well-distributed rainfall helped reduce potential significant seasonal hazards such as pests and diseases. A normal cold front season is expected, from December 2013 to March 2014. To date, according to current reports, low temperatures have affected yields in some localized vegetable-growing areas in high elevations, particularly in the departments of Sololá, Totonicapán, and Quetzaltenango, as is typical for this time of the year.

Eastern Pacific equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are below average (i.e. a deviation of 0°C to -0.5°C). There is a high probability that these ENSO-neutral conditions will last until January 2014. With the likelihood of SSTs decreasing after April 2014, the forecast indicates a normal start to the rainy season in mid-April in Central America and the Caribbean.

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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