Monitor Estacional

January rainfall improves harvest prospects in Burundi and Rwanda

7 Febrero 2018

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Sin mapa
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Parques y reservas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Sin mapa
Concentración de personas desplazadas – coloque el puntero sobre el mapa para ver la clasificación de los campos en Somalia, Sudán y Uganda.
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.
Socios: 
USGS

Mensajes clave

  • Tanzania continued to receive well above-average rainfall in January, resulting in favorable agricultural conditions across the country. Burundi, eastern Rwanda, and localized areas of eastern DRC also received above-average rains during this period, improving harvest prospects following dry spells during the Season A (October to December) rains.

  • Overall, January has been hotter and drier-than-normal for much of the Horn of Africa, following an early cessation of seasonal rains around mid-December. This is likely to result in further deterioration of pasture and water resources, most notably in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and Kenya. 

  • During the next two weeks, seasonal dryness and hotter-than-normal conditions are forecast to continue in the Horn of Africa, while seasonal rainfall is expected to begin to decline in Tanzania.  

Seasonal Progress

During the month of January, rainfall over Tanzania continued to be well above average by as much as 50 to 300 mm (Figure 1). Eastern Rwanda and Burundi benefitted from above-average rainfall in January, improving harvest prospects following below-average Season A (October-December) rainfall performance. During this time, southwestern Ethiopia, central and southern Uganda, and much of southern Kenya observed significant rainfall deficits of between -25 to -100 mm.

The poor performance and earlier-than-normal cessation of the short-rains (October to December) season, coupled with a hotter-than-normal dry season in January, have negatively impacted vegetation conditions across much of Somalia and Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and parts of northeastern Tanzania, as indicated by NDVI (Figure 2). Much of Uganda is also showing a very rapid deterioration in vegetation conditions in response to below-average rainfall performance.

The following is a country-by-country update on recent seasonal progress to date:

  • Tanzania continued to receive above-average rainfall in January, further contributing to overall favorable Vuli and Msimu rains in 2017/18. Cropping and vegetation conditions have responded well and crop production prospects are favorable. 
  • In Burundi, eastern Rwanda, and localized areas of southeastern DRC, January rains were above average. This has helped ease the Season A rainfall deficits, particularly in December, and remained beneficial for both crop and rangeland conditions. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast to continue into mid-February, according to the short-term GFS rainfall outlooks.

  • In January, southwestern Ethiopia, central and southern Uganda, and much of southern Kenya observed significant rainfall deficits of between -25 to -100 mm. In Kenya, except for parts of Turkana and Marsabit counties, the rest of the pastoral regions of northern, eastern, and southern Kenya showed poor vegetation conditions. 

Forecast

The persistent above-average seasonal rains over much of Tanzania are likely to begin to subside in the coming weeks, with moderate to heavy rains (20 to 200 mm) forecast over much of western Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, and parts of southeastern DRC (Figure 3). Meanwhile, the same short-term (1-2 weeks) forecast is also indicative of continued dry seasonal conditions across much of the rest of East Africa. 

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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