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Monitor Estacional

Areas of dryness persist as main season harvest and second season planting near

6 Junio 2018

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • The October 2017- May 2018 wet season has concluded with well below average cumulative precipitation and record low snow accumulation in much of the country. Furthermore, above-average temperatures prevailed, with an earlier than normal snowmelt process.

  • Although several significant precipitation events during late spring helped alleviate dryness across the country, late rainfall was not sufficient to mitigate seasonal dryness in many parts of the country, which is most severe in the northwest but also significant across much of the north, northeast, southwest and central provinces. Field reports confirm that area planted for rainfed wheat is less than that of last year due to dry soil conditions and the use of extended areas for grazing, while a significant proportion of planted rainfed areas may have reduced yields due to dryness.

  • Snowmelt water availability has ended early in most basins, which is likely to adversely impact yields for some areas during the main season, and more broadly for second (dry) season irrigated production.

  • Forecasts indicate below-average to average precipitation while transitioning from spring to summer season. Along with cumulative precipitation deficits, the below-average forecast is reflective of a low frequency of storms entering the region, increasing the risk for extended periods of dryness that could impact agricultural production.

Update on seasonal progress

Precipitation anomalies:

Several good successive precipitation events occurred during mid-May across much of central, northern, northeastern, and eastern Afghanistan. While these precipitation events triggered some flash flooding in Balkh and Takhar provinces, spring cumulative precipitation deficits exist in some areas, especially Jawzjan and Faryab provinces (Figure 1a). During the period of March through 30th of May, the winter seasonal precipitation deficit was reduced due to widespread precipitation in the northeastern and eastern provinces, more than 50 to 200 mm above normal. Seasonal precipitation deficits in the central and western provinces were mitigated to a lesser degree with 25 to 50 mm above normal precipitation during the same time.

As the winter wet season (October—May) is ending, many areas are transitioning to the dry summer with less than 85 percent of normal seasonal cumulative precipitation in northern and southwestern provinces, with some areas in Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, and Nimroz provinces having less than 55–70 percent of normal (Figure 1b).

Snowpack and snow water storage:

Although mid-May precipitation events increased snow depth over some parts of the northeastern mountains (Figure 2), the snow cover has nearly disappeared except at very high elevation in the northeast. While these mid-May precipitation events, coupled with below-average temperature, supported an unusual increase in snow water storage over a few northeastern basins (Figure 3), the snowmelt has ended earlier than normal in most areas. Therefore, lack of available snowmelt water, especially in the southwestern basins, will adversely impact main season (April—May) irrigation and second season crops (Figure 4).   

Temperatures:

Average maximum temperature was well above-normal across the country for an extended period during March and early April. Since then, temperatures have been average to below average. However, they are expected to be well above-average again across the country in the coming months (June—August) (Figure 5). Additional snow at high elevation during mid-May and above-average temperatures raise the potential of flooding in the northeast. 

Forecasts:

The Global Forecast System indicates prevailing dry conditions across Afghanistan during the first two weeks of summer (ending on June 13) (Figure 6). As of the last week of May, the wet season has likely ended in many areas including much of the southwest, west, and northwest. Therefore, the rainfed wheat crop development, especially in the northwest, may experience unfavourable conditions while transitioning to summer. 

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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